The Unexpected and Delayed Sophomore Slump

This week, I am going to change up the articles with a discussion of faltering players who were rookies last year. Everyone talks about the dreaded “sophomore slump”, a term that has not applied for players such as Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. While this drop-off does not seem present for the most obvious players, there are others who seem to be suspect to this poor play the following year, especially when this is least expected.

Steve Slaton – Here is one of the more obvious slumpers as Slaton has not been able to buck the trend with a paltry 127 rushing yards & 97 receiving yards (9 rec) through 3 games. The Texans have been erratic in all games and have been trailing in all three, which means the passing game is high octane, but the running game is disregarded seemingly. Some good news is Chris Brown had a critical fumble near the goal line and this could help with Slaton being used more often as the goal line back in Houston.

Matt Forte – Forte is another guy who has had large expectations, but has come up rather small and not meriting a top three pick thus far this season. Similar to Slaton, Forte’s stats in the RB 2/3 category as well with only 150 rushing yards & 73 receiving yards (11 rec) thus far. Forte is getting better, but ever so slowly and is reminding owners of Ryan Grant last year with a lot of quantity and no quality efforts. Detroit is up next and Forte needs to have a breakout performance simply to rejuvenate confidence in the running game for future games.

Aaron Rodgers – Now Rodgers is not struggling as badly as the two players above. But Rodgers is suspect to what I called the delayed sophomore slump with only 4 TD’s in 3 games as this in essence is his 2nd year in the NFL as well. Rodgers broke out against the Rams and keep that in mind as the litmus test should be coming up against Minnesota. The Bears and Bengals have shown that they are legit defenses, but if Rodgers cannot produce much against the Vikings and their below-average pass defense, there is great reason to be concerned. The offensive line thus far has given him no time as well, which does not help the cause at all, as Rodgers may not have merited the draft pick over guys like Philip Rivers and Tony Romo in fantasy drafts.

Pierre Thomas – I write this right after Thomas had a monster game against the Bills going for 124 yds & 2 TD’s in a half. Thomas is a 3rd year player, but really had his biggest year last year and in what is essentially his second year as well, I believe that the expectations of a massive year also need to be tempered. Thomas is injury prone and has not carried the burden of a full time RB yet. Until that is proven, I think owners can tend to be too high on him even in the Saints offense. Similar to the Rodgers & Forte, the Jets D should prove to be daunting and Thomas’ performance should give a good barometer to how good he actually is moving forward in the season.

Eddie Royal – Royal has been a huge disappointment this year in a Broncos offense that seems to be run first and pass little thus far. Royal has 6 receptions for 42 yards this entire year and those are anemic totals for owners who drafted him in the 6th to 8th rounds. Royal needs receptions more than any other stat and against defenses where he should produce, he has done very little. Royal is nearly waiveable in shallower leagues where WR’s are constantly coming onto the wire. Cut him loose while you can.

WW Overrated/Underrated/"Evenly Rated"

Similar to the last piece with musings, I am going to look at the ones I hit from the previous week and the ones where I looked like a dope.

RIGHT OVERRATED Selection From Week 1
Michael Clayton – 2 rec, 27 yds (ADP: None): In a game where Leftwich looked good in the passing game, Clayton looked mediocre. As mentioned last week, Clayton is wildly inconsistent and against a pummeling Giants D, I don’t expect anything better.

WRONG OVERRATED Selection From Week 1
Mike Bell – 86 yds rushing, 1 TD (ADP: None): The only reason that I may have been somewhat right was because Bell got injured. Pierre Thomas seems to still have a nagging knee injury, but when back, I expect Bell to shrink up considerably. Bell did better than expected against an Eagles D and would have been a great play if available against Buffalo this week

OVERRATED for Week 2

Byron Leftwich – 296 yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs (ADP: None): I am surprised that people are that high on Leftwich even in leagues where you start 2 QBs. While he will be passing a lot, I am not convinced that he can keep up a pace that he has exhibited in the last two weeks. I expect Josh Freeman much sooner than people would expect simply to develop a QB in a year where the Bucs are clearly rebuilding.

Todd Heap – 1 rec, 9 yds, 1 TD (ADP: None): With no TD, this would be a typical inconsistent Todd Heap performance. The Baltimore offense may be booming, but I don’t expect too much more from Heap in the weeks to come. Unless your league requires 2 TE’s, there will likely be better choices on the waiver wire.

RIGHT UNDERRATED Selection From Week 1
Brent Celek – 8 rec, 104 yds (ADP: 151.3): Celek was still targeted heavily even with Kolb at the helm. These are fantastic stats for a guy drafted towards the end of drafts and speaks to the depth at the TE position when you can get players of this caliber producing at this rate.

WRONG UNDERRATED Selection From Week 1
Mewelde Moore -13 yds rushing, 3 rec, 15 yds receiving (ADP: None): Instead of Moore playing more of a role, there is talk that Rashard Mendenhall being more involved in the offense. I expected more playing time for Moore with both Parker & Mendenhall struggling, but for now, Moore is only likely to be in any lineups if there is an injury in the Steelers backfield.

UNDERRATED For Week 2

Mario Manningham – 10 rec, 150 yds, 1 TD (ADP: None): For a guy who was getting no buzz in the preseason, Manningham has jumped to the top of the WR core in a very good Giants passing game. These are WR1 stats that Manningham produced this week and should be interesting how he progresses throughout the year. Very possible that Manningham could be a WR2 by the end of the year.

Justin Forsett – 35 yds rushing, 6 rec, 57 yds receiving (ADP: None): Forsett is a deep sleeper, but produced well with both Julius Jones and Edgerrin James struggling. The receptions will be key for Forsett, especially in a PPR, to see how he is utilized in the Seattle offense.

“Evenly rated”

Laurent Robinson – 6 rec, 54 yds, 1 TD (ADP: None): Just to note, no overrated or underrated for this section. Robinson is a tricky WR to read here because I believe Donnie Avery will come back as the #1 WR. Just as owners are down on Avery, owners are high on Robinson and I’m not totally convinced even with 2 good stat lines. In the next coming weeks, we should find out who the real #1 WR is in St. Louis and Robinson is making his case week by week.

Pierre Garcon – 1 rec, 48 yds, 1 TD (ADP: None): Garcon did very little except one big play against the Dolphins on MNF. Garcon was targeted a decent amount and I expect continual improvement from Garcon as he establishes more rapport with Manning. Nothing to get crazy about, but Garcon can fill in as the 3^rd option in the passing game between Wayne & Clark.

LeSean McCoy – 18 yds rushing, 4 rec, 37 yds receiving (ADP: 88.1): McCoy’s value has been very up-and-down from sites that I read ranging from waiving him to holding onto him for dear life. Westbrook is going through his annual routine of not practicing and McCoy in the Eagles offense could be potent. There were some first signs of life from McCoy in week 2 and this should continue as long as Westbrook has lingering injuries. In previous years, the Eagles did not have a RB like McCoy that they could rely on as much, but with Westbrook’s age, this is a luxury that I expect the Eagles to use more rigorously.

Musings from Week 2

As the season progresses, I will review a couple picks for each category I have made from the previous week, both right and wrong. After that, I will continue to have updates on players who are faltering or improving in the season. Week 2’s are usually the weeks with big shock factor as too much credence is put on Week 1’s performance. There should be more surprises until we have played a full month. By that time, owners should be able to figure out which performances are more consistent and which are one time deals.

The Bad Continuing To Be Bad From Week 1

Brandon Marshall (ADP 54.3) & Eddie Royal (ADP 53.0):
Marshall – 3 rec, 34 yds & Royal – 3 rec, 20 yds
These stats are not encouraging at all for an offense that was making these WR’s elite last year. All of a sudden, both of these WR’s are looking mediocre with a more concerning line with Royal. Marshall has built-in excuses with all his off-the-field issues. Royal does not and for him to only have 5 receptions in 2 games is concerning. 2 weeks can be an aberration, but owners start to get worried after 3 or more weeks. If this continues, owners who drafted either of these players around their ADP are probably regretting the decision.

The Bad Who Are Getting Better From Week 1

Steve Smith (ADP 21.4): 8 rec, 131 yds
Delhomme looked like a competent QB against a decent Falcons D and Smith played his role from last year. Smith’s main issues are getting TD’s, but owners will not complain as much if there are continued performances such as the one in week 2. A tricky player to evaluate and will be interesting as we go through the weeks for a true gauge on one of the few smurfs left at the WR position.

The Bad For Week 2

Donnie Avery (ADP 87.2): 1 rec, 4 yds, 1 fumble
Avery’s stat line in week 1 was not bad going for 6 rec, 46 yds. However, a fumble in each week is a killer more so for lack of confidence in feeding him the ball over the long term. I do not think Avery is that far behind Laurent Robinson and I would suggest in deeper leagues for owners to continue to stay with him. The fumbles cannot continue for improvement to be expected and I believe this will stop with time.

Roy Williams (ADP 45.2): 1 rec, 18 yds
I mentioned earlier about consistently poor performances from players. For Roy Williams, this has been his entire stint for the Cowboys. I have never seen a player that continues to regress in what should be his prime. There is no chemistry with him and Romo and I do not expect this to improve any time soon. Considering this was supposedly a beat up Giants secondary that the Cowboys faced in Week 2, Williams did nothing to merit a mid 4th round pick from the beginning of the year.

Lance Moore (ADP 69.1): 0 rec
While the Saints offense continues to score points at will this year, Moore has been non-existent in the offense. Moore seems to just have the wrong timing with small injuries hampering him and players like Shockey, Henderson, and Meachem more involved in the passing game. Moore was picked high with some caution and now there should be more concern from owners who may have the wrong player in the right offense.




The Remains To Be Seen Again From Weeks 1 & 2

Julius Jones (ADP 92.0): 11 yds rushing, 3 rec, -2 yds rec, 1 TD This stat line look horrendous, but that depends on who you ask. PPR players are thankful for the 3 receptions and I expect that Jones will still be a good value pick for his ADP. Justin Forsett is closing in on a timeshare with performances such as Week 2’s and that will dictate how much time Jones will get on the field in future weeks.

The Remains To Be Good From Weeks 1 & 2

Joe Flacco (ADP 141.4): 190 yds passing, 2 TD’s, 1 INT
Matt Ryan may get more credit, but Flacco has looked great in the last couple weeks. Of course in typical NFL fashion, while the offense of the Ravens is finally above average, the defense is not as good without Rex Ryan and his crazy blitzes. Anyone who got Flacco got a steal at this spot as he is a legitimate QB2 in all leagues and with performances from the past weeks, he could possibly be a QB1 going forward.

The Remains To Be Seen

Terrell Owens (ADP 34.5): 3 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD
The only difference between this week’s statline and last week’s is a TD. Owens still dropped a couple deep passes and against the Saints, Dolphins, and Browns, T.O can still show if he is everything he touts himself to be in the next month. Owens needs TD’s and the rest of the receptions and yards come soon after. But no TD’s should leave owners concerned and regretting a 3rd round pick as defenses will not get easier in the coming weeks.

Carson Palmer (ADP 85.9): 185 yds passing, 4 TD’s (3 passing, 1 rushing), 2 INT’s
Palmer has looked slightly above average in the two games thus far. 2 interceptions in each game, but the TD’s came much easier against Green Bay and I expect more of that going forward with Palmer. In the NFL, many aspects move exponentially and with Palmer, he improves as the running game improves. Benson and the O-line have looked great and if this continues, Palmer can serve as a good starter or great backup on most fantasy teams.

Zach Miller (ADP 145.1): 0 rec
In the Raiders offense, Miller will unfortunately have some of these games. The passing game is anemic with Russell there, but Miller is definitely a top target for him. I would treat the Chiefs game as an aberration, but also the Chargers game as well. Miller should be more productive moving forward, but owners might need to look at back-ups if Miller has another poor performance next week against the Broncos.

The Maybe Not As Good As I Thought From Week 1

Randy Moss (ADP 8.2): 4 rec, 24 yds
Darrelle Revis may have been the reason Moss’ stat line was this low in week 2. But again no TD and as mentioned with Palmer, Moss will go as Brady goes. And if there is no TD again in week 3, then from a consistency standpoint, owners will get worried and I think there is some merit to it. I expect Brady to find his groove similar to Manning last year midway through the season. But until then, statlines such as week 2’s may continue for Moss until we get into the middle of the year.

The Good Turning Into Great From Week 1

Drew Brees (ADP 11.2): 311 yds passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Against a stiff Eagles defense that made Delhomme look like he was in high school, Brees went through them at ease and solidified his spot as the #1 QB in fantasy. When you look at Brees’ stat line from year to year, everything gets better and this is encouraging from a dynasty standpoint as well. I do not expect this to stop, but an interesting week 4 matchup against the Jets D will prove to be another big test for a QB that looks like he cannot be stopped.

The Good From Week 2

Marques Colston (ADP 24.6): 8 rec, 98 yds, 2 TDs
Colston has looked fantastic the first two weeks in the New Orleans offense. While Brees seems to be spreading the ball a lot, Colston is still a focal point of the offense and should continue to be as the season progresses. Health will be a concern, but if Colston can get a full season in, he may move to WR1 status this year.

Kellen Winslow (ADP 79.0): 7 rec, 90 yds, 1 TD
Winslow has caught a TD pass in both games and seems to be a heavy target for Byron Leftwich. If Tampa continues to be behind in games, which is likely, that means more passing and more targets for Winslow. To see him this involved in the offense is a promising sign for a guy who has been quite streaky throughout his NFL career.

Philip Rivers (ADP 35.2): 436 yds, 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s
Rivers benefits from LT not being the focal point of the offense any more. The passing game has been emphasized and been productive in the last two games. Rivers has great chemistry with Jackson and Gates and this should likely continue throughout the year. Owners should be encouraged on taking Rivers compared to guys like Romo and Rodgers, who have struggled this year.

WW Overrated/Underrated/"Evenly Rated"

Looking ahead in the next weeks, injuries and poor performances will continue as in week 1. While injuries are hard to predict, the poor performances are something owners can spot. In this Thursday/Friday piece, I am going to look at the players on the wire who have been suggested and whether I think there is some long-term value for these players or that they are 1-week wonders. Some of these players will be fairly obvious and some will be for deep leagues where owners are taking fliers on certain picks:

Overrated
Mike Bell – 143 yds (ADP: None): I am not as sold as others on the value of Bell. When Pierre Thomas comes back, I fully expect a full workload for him and for Bell to be put in sparsely. Running against the Lions is more of an outlier and I believe that against tougher defenses, Bell will sputter and Thomas will be able to fill this void.

Michael Clayton – 5 rec, 93 yds (ADP: None): In a mediocre offense, Clayton is not a guy I would recommend. Add to the fact that he is wildly inconsistent as seen by past seasons and I would not invest much in a WR who has somehow been with the Bucs for 5 yrs! Surprising fact of the week.

Ben Watson – 6 rec, 77 yds, 2 TD’s (ADP: None): Similar to Clayton, Watson can put up stat lines such as the impressive one he did against Buffalo in week 1 and can go without catches the next week. This is more a product of New England’s offense than anything else, but I would be weary as there should be better options available at the TE position.

Underrated
Mewelde Moore – 8 yds rushing, 4 rec, 28 yds rec (ADP: None): Although Parker and Mendenhall seem to be ahead of Moore, Moore is worth a stash in PPR leagues. There are enough dumpoffs in a game that go to Moore where he can serve value and if either of those RB’s go down, then Moore could possibly be good enough for a start down the road for fantasy owners.

Brent Celek – 6 rec, 37 yds, 1 TD (ADP: 151.3): Celek seems to have great chemistry with McNabb, who is now injured. Celek will still remain a viable option with solid value as he was picked at the latter end of most drafts. In PPR leagues, Celek has lots of value as well as he has many dropoffs fed to him as well.

Davone Bess – 7 rec, 57 yds (ADP: 157.9): Bess seemed to be going up and down during the preseason with his inability to secure the #2 job in the Dolphins receiving core. But Bess’ line against the Falcons slightly exceeds expectations and he should have the job moving forward.

“Evenly rated”
Matt Leinart – No stats (ADP: None): I put Leinart here for deep stash leagues where at some point, I expect Warner to falter for poor performance or injury. The NFL moves faster than any other league and if there is are results similar to Week 1 from Warner, you can expect Leinart to be in an offense that is one of the most high-powered in the league.

Nate Burleson – 7 rec, 74 yds, 1 TD (ADP: 139.9): Burleson benefits from an injured Deion Branch and no more Bobby Engram in the offense. Hasselbeck should feed the ball a lot to both Houshmandzadeh and Burleson and I expect WR2/WR3 numbers from Burleson this season. If on the wires, he is a worthy pickup

Earl Bennett – 7 rec, 66 yds (ADP: 119.5): A large number of targets for Bennett (13) and clearly has a connection with Cutler. Not as valuable in TD leagues, but for PPR formats, Bennett seems to be serving as a possession receiving to get first downs. There is value in him, but be weary depending on what your league values.

Enjoy the games this week!

Musings from Week 1

A long time since I last posted. I said that I would try to make 2-3 posts a week before each week. I should have something up on the Tuesdays and Thursdays. From my end, I am going to write about performances and more so how they relate to the ADP of players. It has only been one week, but certain players definitely standout with their scoring line and some make you wonder whether they merited the round they were selected.

The Bad

Brandon Marshall (ADP 54.3) & Eddie Royal (ADP 53.0):
Marshall – 4 rec, 27 yds & Royal – 2 rec, 18 yds
I discuss both because the Denver offense looked awful. I expect Marshall to struggle even more because of Orton’s inability to throw the deep ball. In PPR leagues, I expect more from Royal and see this week as more of an outlier. The offense could not get much worse and should start moving in the right direction in the weeks ahead.

Steve Slaton (ADP 13.7): 17 yds rushing; 3 rec, 35 yds receiving
I find the Texans as a confusing team to watch. Some weeks, they look phenomenal and other weeks, they look like one of the worst teams in the league. Slaton only ran for 17 yards this week and with the Titans up next, Slaton could have more trouble getting anything going in the run game

Steve Smith (ADP 21.4): 3 rec, 21 yds
Delhomme would be an easy target here, but I would be more concerned with Smith and a lower level, DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart. Delhomme & Smith definitely have a connection for long-ball strikes and without that ongoing, Smith drops to a WR2

Anthony Gonzalez (ADP 46.9): 0 rec
Gonzalez is injured, but what is more concerning is this 2-6 week stretch. If this injury turns out to be a 4, 5 or 6-week injury, this is extremely concerning. Even when back, Gonzalez will need to regain trust & rapport with Manning, which is not a guarantee. Gonzalez’s situation will be one to watch in one of the oddest injuries I have seen in some time in NFL

Greg Olsen (ADP 62.7): 1 rec, 8 yds
I am intrigued to see if week 1 was an aberration for a guy who was hyped up for a huge season with Cutler this year. Olsen has been hyped as a upcoming TE1 and last night did nothing to inspire any confidence. There was very little to show of it against Green Bay and with Pittsburgh coming up, life does not get much easier

The Remains To Be Seen

Thomas Jones (ADP 58.7): 107 yds rushing, 2 TD’s
What will define Jones and Leon Washington is if the Jets do not have to come from behind in games. This is still the same team with a strong offensive line and a defense that arguably has become better with the additions of Bart Scott & Jim Leonhard. If the Jets can do well, the running game can do well and Jones could be better than people anticipated

Julius Jones (ADP 92.0): 117 yds rushing, 1 TD; 2 rec, 19 yds receiving

This stat line is more likely an aberration considering Jones ran against the Rams. But like his brother Thomas, Julius may be better than expected and for a guy selected in the late 8th to early 9th round, there could be some hidden value as a matchup starter in most leagues

Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 100.8): 363 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 INT
Big Ben had a very good and surprising stat total against the Titans last Thursday. Similar to the Jets, the evolution and way the Steelers win games will be the signal of what to expect of Ben in the future. Surely, 360 yards is not happening often, but will we see more 300 yd games out of Ben? From what was seen Thursday, I would not be shocked because the running game was ineffective for the Steelers.

Jeremy Shockey (ADP 117.8): 4 rec, 31 yds, 2 TD’s
Hard to say with Shockey who has never seem meet the hype fantasy owners have given him. But maybe with lower expectations, Shockey rises to have the season we have expected of him all along. Week 1 was a good start and if he can be a constant red-zone target for Brees, Shockey could be a solid start most weeks for fantasy players

Joe Flacco (ADP 141.4): 307 yds passing, 3 TD’s, 1 INT
Can you imagine if the Ravens start scoring points at that pace? Flacco looked great on Sunday albeit against a KC Defense that still does not stop very much. Next week should serve a stiffer test against the Chargers but two weeks in a row would be impressive for a guy who was asked to manage the game last year.

The Good

Reggie Wayne (ADP 17.2): 10 rec, 162 yds, 1 TD
If this is what Wayne will look like for the rest of the season with constant targets, then he is in for a huge year. The part that I will be curious about is if Wayne can continually get open without Gonzalez, but Wayne looked like Fitzgerald in the NFC divisional game where Fitzgerald got a lot of attention from the defense, but was still catching balls.

Drew Brees (ADP 11.2): 358 yds passing, 6 TDs, 1 INT
Brees looked like he had never even left the field from last year in week 1 against the Lions. With a stiffer Eagles defense coming up, seeing how Brees will fair will give fantasy owners a better assessment of how Brees will do this season. If Brees can still put up monster numbers against the Eagles and possibly without Pierre Thomas, he may be in the untradeable category for lots of owners

Adrian Peterson (ADP 1.3): 180 yds rushing, 3 TDs; 1 rec, 18 yds receiving
AP’s last run for a TD was phenomenal against the Browns. What probably assures owners even more is the 3 TD’s for Peterson and the determination of the Vikings to feed him the ball in the red zone. Players like Harvin and Favre make life easier for Peterson as week 1 has made him look like the RB that justifies the #1 pick in most drafts.

Randy Moss (ADP 8.2): 12 rec, 141 yds
Moss may not have a TD, but had consistent numbers with Brady back in the lineup. For Moss owners, the TD’s will come as Moss’ progress is correlated with Brady’s. Brady will continue to get better, look for the long ball more, and at some point, the Patriots will get back to their 07 form which means big points for Moss

Tony Romo (ADP 49.4): 353 yds, 3 TD’s
Romo put up a stat line in a game where I could have seen Dallas struggle. And at the beginning when watching the morning games, it looked like a game Dallas would barely win and put up mediocre numbers. Then all of a sudden, three long bombs to Williams, Crayton, and Austin. Romo is still maintaining is Mr. September/October by playing well early. Time will tell later in the season if he can produce like this late in the season.

I will write one more article in the week and keep up this pattern for the season. This will go over the waiver wire, but more correlated with that, why these waiver wire players are coveted. Most time it seems to be injury, but if fantasy owners can look in the distance and see poor play (i.e.: Tomlinson playing poorly, Sproles getting more time), these are things to look for in the weeks against when scouring the wires.

Slow PPR Live Draft Blog, Entry 11

This will be the last entry I have of this draft. This draft finally ended yesterday after ten days. Absolutely ridiculous and fun at the same time. I will outline my picks in the 13th, 14th, & 15th round. Beyond the 15th round, I took some reaches on players where I would be happy if one of the five worked into my roster on a semi-regular basis. For the 13th round pick, I probably should have included this player considering my last two picks were Giants. The draft went as follows after I picked the Giants D.

12.01
The Knuckles
Giants, New York NYG Def
12.02
SUPERDAVE
Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK
12.03
Philippe27
Washington, Nate TEN WR
12.04
Green Bowl Packers
Scott, Bernard CIN RB
12.05
Philippe27
Scheffler, Tony DEN TE
12.06
Pain Train
Celek, Brent PHI TE
12.07
River-Rats
Muhammad, Muhsin CAR WR
12.08
Feisty Ferrets
McGahee, Willis BAL RB
12.09
Jaguars
Miller, Heath PIT TE
12.10
The Grim Reaper
Chargers, San Diego SDC Def
12.11
White Mules 1
Betts, Ladell WAS RB
12.12
We Need to Win 1
Finley, Jermichael GBP TE
13.01
We Need to Win 1
Orton, Kyle DEN QB
13.02
The Knuckles
???????????????

This appeared to be the time to take a QB as I needed a backup & had enough positions with depth at this point. QB's available at this point were Manning, Edwards, Flacco, & Pennington. I decided to keep the brothers together as well as make my third consecutive Giant pick with Manning. No real justification, but I think Manning's the best of the bunch, plays on a good team, and will be a nice bye-week (Giants play New Orleans in the bye) backup for Peyton.

After Manning, the draft had more players where any impact would likely be because of injury as seen below

13.02

The Knuckles

Manning, Eli NYG QB
13.03
The Grim Reaper
Edwards, Trent BUF QB
13.04
River-Rats
Bears, Chicago CHI Def
13.05
Philippe27
Clayton, Mark BAL WR
13.06
Jaguars
Faulk, Kevin NEP RB
13.07
Pain Train
Pennington, Chad MIA QB
13.08
Feisty Ferrets
Burleson, Nate SEA WR
13.09
Green Bowl Packers
Moore, Mewelde PIT RB
13.10
Smackdown
Taylor, Fred NEP RB
13.11
SUPERDAVE
Flacco, Joe BAL QB
13.12
White Mules 1
Jones, Kevin CHI RB
14.01
Smackdown
Campbell, Jason WAS QB
14.02
SUPERDAVE
McClain, Le'Ron BAL RB
14.03
The Knuckles
?????????????????

My focus here was RB and option again were bleak. Buckhalter, Caddy Williams, Choice, Maroney. I ended with Maroney. A 14th round pick for the "starter" on one of the best teams in the league. How could I go wrong? All I need is for Taylor, Morris, Faulk, & BenJarvus to all go down. Worth the gamble at this stage and again, hopefully in the distant future, Maroney can be used in a spare situation.

After Maroney, I had the 10th pick in the 14th round as well. Draft again goes as follows

14.03
The Knuckles
Maroney, Laurence NEP RB
14.04
Green Bowl Packers
Boss, Kevin NYG TE
14.05
Smackdown
Jets, New York NYJ Def
14.06
Pain Train
Delhomme, Jake CAR QB
14.07
River-Rats
Favre, Brett MIN QB
14.08
Feisty Ferrets
Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR
14.09
Jaguars
Schilens, Chaz OAK WR
14.10
The Knuckles
?????????????????????

This time, I looked at WR. Very surprised this once buzzworthy name was still available and I was happy to take the chance on Davone Bess. Probably does not help at all that he might lose his starting gig to a 4th round rookie WR in Hartline, but Bess would be next to step in if Hartline or even Ginn is injured or performs poorly. Happy with this pick as I do not see as much upside in picking up someone like Chambers, Camarillo, Jenkins, or Austin in this slot.

Final pick for me in the 15th round was Caddy Williams. At that point, no RB's were available of any service and while Caddy isn't much better than that, at least he got a pre-season start. Amazed that Raheem Morris still think there's still something left in Cadillac to merit a 2-2-1 split between Ward, Graham, & Williams as suggested and if so, I am willing to take a 15th round flier on the idea.

Long, long draft. In the next couple posts, I am going to compare drafts that I have done with the one I just completed just to show some differences in the selection process. Process always depends on scoring, knowledge/bias of owners involved, but comparing them brought up some differences from league to league on the opinion of certain players. When I look back in retrospect on some of the picks, I am sure there are many players we will regret hyping up too much or letting go down so far in many of these drafts.

Slow PPR Live Draft Blog, Entry 10

After the 3rd RB pick in Hightower, I really needed to dig into the bag of deep sleepers. Guys who were 2nd on the depth chart at RB or 3rd or 4th in the WR pool. As a result, I was pleased with this next player and was surprised he fell to me this late. The draft after Hightower looked like this:

9.06
The Knuckles
Hightower, Tim ARI RB
9.07
Pain Train
Bennett, Earl CHI WR
9.08
Feisty Ferrets
Carlson, John SEA TE
9.09
Green Bowl Packers
Hixon, Domenik NYG WR
9.10
Smackdown
Morgan, Josh SFO WR
9.11
SUPERDAVE
Lewis, Jamal CLE RB
9.12
River-Rats
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB
10.01
Smackdown
Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB
10.02
SUPERDAVE
Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def
10.03
The Knuckles
???????????????

Going through all positions, the availabilities were as follows

QB:

Garrard

Roethlisberger

RB:

Chester Taylor

James Davis

Charles

Graham

WR:

Steve Smith (NYG)

Harvin

Gage

Crayton

TE:

Shockey

Keller

Miller

Lots of choices here, but with this league being a PPR, I ended up concluding on the less-popular Steve Smith. The Giants offense is tough to read, but Eli has to throw to someone and I am banking more often than not, Smith can fill this role. Smith seemed to be a decent possession receiver last year and while any of the receivers could step up, I am hoping that Eli has the most confidence in Smith.

I am going to go over my 12th round pick (due to trading down) here as well because value of these players significantly drops. After Smith, the draft goes as follows:

10.03
The Knuckles
Smith, Steve NYG WR
10.04
Green Bowl Packers
Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def
10.05
Smackdown
Miller, Zach OAK TE
10.06
Pain Train
Keller, Dustin NYJ TE
10.07
River-Rats
Shockey, Jeremy NOS TE
10.08
Feisty Ferrets
Garrard, David JAC QB
10.09
Jaguars
Taylor, Chester MIN RB
10.10
The Grim Reaper
Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def
10.11
White Mules 1
Gage, Justin TEN WR
10.12
We Need to Win 1
Davis, James CLE RB
11.01
We Need to Win 1
Harvin, Percy MIN WR
11.02
White Mules 1
Coffee, Glen SFO RB
11.03
The Grim Reaper
Charles, Jamaal KCC RB
11.04
River-Rats
Graham, Earnest TBB RB
11.05
Philippe27
Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB
11.06
Jaguars
Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB
11.07
Pain Train
Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN TE
11.08
Feisty Ferrets
Bush, Michael OAK RB
11.09
Green Bowl Packers
Crayton, Patrick DAL WR
11.10
Philippe27
Curtis, Kevin PHI WR
11.11
SUPERDAVE
Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR
11.12
The Grim Reaper
Davis, Vernon SFO TE
12.01
The Knuckles
??????????????

As you can see here, there are some real stretches on players here, so I decided in my conservative fashion to take a defense. And staying in line with Big Blue & the pick of Smith, I took the Giants Defense. This scoring system does not recognize yards, but looks at sack, interceptions, and defensive TD's more. I figure with Umenioyra back, this D should be even better and can hopefully give that extra push needed in those down weeks from other players.

Slow PPR Live Draft Blog, Entry 9

In the 9th round, I got stuck fast. I was hoping for an RB in this spot, even a marginal one at that, and they were going off the board one by one. This is what the draft looked like up to the 9.05 mark

8.03
The Knuckles
Winslow, Kellen TBB TE
8.04
Green Bowl Packers
Avery, Donnie STL WR
8.05
Philippe27
Mason, Derrick BAL WR
8.06
Pain Train
Breaston, Steve ARI WR
8.07
Jaguars
Palmer, Carson CIN QB
8.08
Philippe27
Cassel, Matt KCC QB
8.09
River-Rats
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA WR
8.10
The Grim Reaper
Jackson, Fred BUF RB
8.11
Green Bowl Packers
White, LenDale TEN RB
8.12
We Need to Win 1
McCoy, LeSean PHI RB
9.01
We Need to Win 1
Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB
9.02
White Mules 1
Sproles, Darren SDC RB
9.03
The Grim Reaper
Norwood, Jerious ATL RB
9.04
Jaguars
Jones, Julius SEA RB
9.05
Feisty Ferrets
Henry, Chris CIN WR
9.06
Smackdown
9.07
Pain Train
9.08
Feisty Ferrets

9.09
Green Bowl Packers
9.10
Smackdown

As you can see, Jones, Sproles, Bradshaw, Jackson, & White all went off the board here. This left me scrambling and looking to trade. After enough maneuvering, I was able to pull off this deal.

The Knuckles gave up

Draft Pick 9.10; Draft Pick 11.10; Draft Pick 12.03; Draft Pick 13.10

Smackdown gave up

Draft Pick 9.06; Draft Pick 12.01; Draft Pick 13.02; Draft Pick 14.10

Now, I had the next pick at 9.06 after giving up some value in lower rounds. Moving up here was very big because I need a RB in this system to fill in for Lynch at least for the first three games. At this point, Hightower was the only "starter" on the board. I put starter in quotations because I think Beanie Wells has already made this RB situation in Arizona a committee, but I'll be happy enough if Hightower gets 15-20 touches in the early part of the season to suffice my team. I cannot imagine this trade hurting me that much and this seemed like the time to move up as the risk seemed minimal in lower rounds.