Where Do I Decide to Pick?

My last blog was about a situation that never came to fruition. Well, I guess you never know with Favre, but I am inclined to believe that we will not see him in the NFL this year. But who knows, maybe he’ll come back for the Super Bowl if the Vikes call. Enough Favre though and let’s talk about a situation that came up in one of my leagues with an answer that evades me at this point.

The situation was that I was given the first pick on where to select in my 12 team draft. What further complicates matters is that this is a PPR league where the top QB’s, RB’s, and WR’s are on a much more even playing field due to the scoring elements. The two main questions I asked myself when trying to make this decision were

a) Is there a player(s) that are exceedingly better than everyone else?
b) At what point is there a significant drop in talent in the draft?

Looking at question a, I would say there is no player that makes themselves the quintessential #1 choice, especially in PPR. From a RB perspective, Peterson, Jones-Drew, & Forte are all in the same mold and while Peterson is the #1 choice in non-PPR formats, Jones-Drew & Forte become even with Peterson in a PPR format in many fantasy projections.

The key part as I continued to look through the positions was at WR as guys like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were on par with the top RB’s in the league. Both guys are slated to catch over 100 passes and from a points perspective, they were even with the top 3 RB’s. The more I looked at projections for 2009 stats, the QB’s showed the least variance (4 pt for a TD) as guys like Brady and Brees did not discern themselves as much from second-tier QB’s such as Schaub and Rivers.

When going into more detail on RB’s and WR’s, the breaking point for each position varies greatly. At RB, PPR or no-PPR, the dip in talent falls after the top 3 of Jones-Drew, Forte, and Peterson. At WR, the dip is much more subjective. I would say that at the WR spot, once you get past Johnson, Fitzgerald, and Moss, the rest of the WR’s are debatable whether they are going to produce at the level of the top 3. Analysts seem high on players such as Calvin Johnson and Roddy White, but they have not proven enough consistently to illustrate they are either PPR or TD monsters to get into that echelon level of WR’s.

At this point, just looking at RB’s and WR’s, I decided I was picking 3rd or 6th, where I was getting at least one top-tier player in one of these positions. I eventually concluded on 3rd, aiming to get Jones-Drew, Forte, or Peterson. There may be more optimal strategies in this format, but I could not find any conceivable answer. And I’m definitely not trying to make a point that my strategy is correct. I am more curious about the process as the next pick that I saw was an owner who decided that the 11th pick was the most optimal choice. There may be no way to strategically find the correct position on where to be in a draft, but I am interested in how people convince themselves that a certain draft position is the optimal spot.

When Good Ol’ Brett signs with the Vikes

Brett, Brett, Brett, what would we do without you? There is a fascination about Favre that no other individual in the NFL can meet, at least in the off-season. As we get closer though to the NFL season, the charade that Favre has put on for the last couple months should be a backburner story because the new topic will be:

“How good are the Vikings with Favre as their QB?”

From a fantasy and fan perspective, people continue to remember Favre in the final four games where he was fairly inept and brought the entire Jets offense down with him. But his stats up until Week 12 were very respectable as he had 20 TD’s with 2461 passing yards (223.7 yds/game) up to that point. The Vikings situation is arguably better than the Jets with Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson anchoring the offensive line and a defense that stacks up well in the NFC. If Favre can manage games similar to his last season with the Packers in 2007, then the Vikings are in very good position to break loose not only in the NFC North, but the entire conference. In the 2007 season, Favre finished with 28 TD’s and 4,115 yards with a 13-3 record. This bodes well for all players, especially Adrian Peterson and Bernard Berrian, who have the possibility of putting up big time stats with a semi-competent QB at the helm.

One other aspect to keep in mind is Favre’s confidence. The Vikes schedule works in favour of Favre accumulating some low QB1/QB2 stats as the first 5 weeks look like this:

Week 1: Minnesota @ Cleveland
Week 2: Minnesota @ Detroit
Week 3: San Fran @ Minnesota
Week 4: Green Bay @ Minnesota
Week 5: Minnesota @ St. Louis

If there is anything that Favre needs, it’s confidence out of the gates and this schedule is as good as any to get him and the rest of the team going in the right direction from a fantasy perspective.

Say what you will about Favre and his need for attention, but he may be a huge reason why all of us will be noticing the Vikes for winning and racking up big time points for teammates in the upcoming season.

The First of Many Posts for the 2009 Season

Hi my name is Nathan Lee and I'm a Fantasy Footaballholic. In this blog, I will re-analyze some questions asked on various fantasy sports sites and come up with unique questions that are not asked despite the saturation of information on the Internet. I will be writing Mondays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays during the season and will add more pending on my schedule.

The first question I am going to pose is a subject that surprisingly I haven't seen discussed. I figured every single aspect of fantasy football would be discussed by now, especially after reading Justin Forsett’s fantasy value, but this subject/question is one I cannot see. And that question is...

"Who is this year's Willis McGahee?"

There is always one RB that does not just disappoint in a fantasy football season, but is a complete bomb which severely hinders a owner for the year. Last year, McGahee's stats went as follows:

170 rushes, 671 yards, 7 TD's

24 receptions, 173 yards, 0 TD's

On average, McGahee was being drafted in the 3^rd round in two out of three of my fantasy leagues & was kept as a keeper in another league. McGahee’s ADP was 30.4 in 2008. In the one league that I finished dead last in, I had McGahee drop to the 6^th round and I just could not resist at that point. I thought I was getting an incredible steal here, but that turned out to be disastrous in many ways. Not only did McGahee have a lack of production, but he gave hope to me as he had solid games (Week 7 & 10 went for over 100 yds and 1 TD) and subsequent dud games (Week 11 & 12, mustered 24 yards on 16 carries combined).

The year before that, Larry Johnson played a similar role as he followed up a fabulous 2006 campaign (1789 yards, 17 TD’s) with an abysmal 2007 season (559 yards, 3 TD’s). McGahee & Johnson respectively are players I made a conscious effort to avoid in both years, but the McGahee situation in the league I finished last put me in a predicament. I asked the question, “Can a player go so low in a draft where I feel I have to pick them?”. I said yes & paid the price as McGahee not only showed glimpses in weeks that I could not predict, but gave me hope in the subsequent weeks that he was startable. I could say now that it’s arguable whether McGahee should have even gone in the top ten rounds based on his performance last year.

So who is this year’s Willis McGahee? The clearest answer is LaDainian Tomlinson. Many fantasy football players will see Tomlinson drop and subsequently think, “Well I have to take him now in the second round, he’s LT! He holds the TD record, he always rushes for 1000+ yards”. But I am telling you right now, avoid Tomlinson at all costs. I don’t know if there’s ever a point where you have to say you have to draft someone in the 3^rd or 4^th round for Tomlinson after I saw McGahee last year. And I must say that in the “Not For Long” league, Darren Sproles can easily supplant Tomlinson even with just a couple bad games. The same happened to McGahee with Rice & Le’ron McClain last year and I expect a similar trend to Tomlinson. There are few times when RB’s improve after steadily showing a downhill pattern in their stats & performance such as LT last year. Also by picking players like Tomlinson at a high position in these drafts, they tend to take up an additional roster spot with the hope that they can continue at such a high level. These players will show glimpses, but nothing consistent throughout the season which makes a fantasy owner’s decision even more difficult on a week-to-week basis. There’s always one bomb in the fantasy football field and the key is to avoid these at all costs. This year, it’s LT.

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