I will be trying to put in a different post besides waiver wire pickups as the wire tends to thin out as the season progresses and there are more interesting topics in the league from a fantasy perspective. Today, the biggest news is Crabtree signing with San Fran and Braylon Edwards getting dealt to the Jets.
All sites that I have read are very high on the Jets astute move to acquire Edwards. The price was somewhat cheap in 2 NFL players & 2 middle draft picks, but there is too much hype at this point for a player who has been an utter disappointment for the past year and a quarter. Edwards going to a city with even more scrutiny and high expectations to win does not seem like the recipe for any sort of success this entire year. Didn’t Edwards have enough motivation and excitement for last year, when the Browns were highly touted to have an outstanding team last year? There are players who strike you as people who thrive under pressure and those who wilt. Based on the sample size seen, Edwards seems to do much better with lower expectations and while he done little in Cleveland this year, he stands to gain more from a fantasy standpoint with a more familiar offense given time.
Edwards’ fantasy role is impacted also because he needs to learn an offense and the amount of time this takes is always undetermined. Rapport between QB’s and WR’s takes a long time to learn in the offseason, let alone in the regular season when injuries are constant and there are less practice opportunities. I remember last year how Dallas was very excited for Roy Williams to be a part of that offense and we have all seen how that turned out last year as well as this year. I do not expect Braylon Edwards to play as poorly, but saying that he can be a WR2/WR3 is a stretch for sure. I would be happy as an owner if he can get to this point at any juncture of the season and owners should temper expectations for a player who has these clear factors working against him. As a fantasy owner of his on two teams, I hope that he proves me wrong and shows he can be a viable fantasy option week-to-week. I just won’t be expecting this to happen though.
First quarter of the season has finished and as usual, many unexpected concerns and surprises all over the NFL. At this point, the waiver wire tends to get thinner as more players are establishing their roles on teams. More examination from last week and what to look at going ahead in week 5.
The Bad Continuing To Be Bad From Week 3
No one as Beanie Wells and Roddy White were both on the bye.
The Bad Who Are Getting Better From Week 3
T.J Houshmandzadeh (ADP 35.2): 8 rec, 103 yds
Encouraging sign for Housh to take in 8 receptions, but as I mentioned last week, he needs Hasselbeck soon. Seneca Wallace will make sure the Seahawks are behind in games, but his inaccuracy and unwillingness to stay in the pocket are hinderances for Housh. A Deion Branch sighting is not the best timing either for a player who still does not have a TD this year.
Would LT go in the 4th or 5th round right now? With a battered offensive line in San Diego, LT’s situation is not getting better anytime soon. Add to the fact that he is exponentially getting worse day by day and I do not see any improvement for the foreseeable future.
Darren McFadden (ADP 43.0): -3 yds rushing, 1 rec
This just keeps getting worse as McFadden had an anemic performance this week. There are subtle positives about the injury, which is to get it fixed and also to avoid a murderer’s row of defenses starting with the Giants this week. However, McFadden is in a putrid offense and has little hope of improving unless JaMarcus Russell gets better or pulled, neither of which I expect to happen.
Leon Washington (ADP 95.0): 17 yds rushing; 4 rec, 24 yds receiving
Washington has played alright in this early part of the season, but has not had the long yardage plays that owners were hoping for at the beginning of the year. Washington needs to show similar ability to what Darren Sproles has given in the first four games to bust a huge gain for a TD and vaulting into double digit point status on single plays. Until that happens, Washington will be a disappointment.
The Remains To Be Seen Again From Weeks 3 & 4
Darren Sproles (ADP 93.8): 1 rec, 16 yds receiving
I mentioned LT in the bad column above, but Sproles was no better last week. The argument can be made that he did not get any touches, but that partly was due to Sproles having a subpar game against a mediocre Dolphins defense. Moving forward, Sproles success ironically has to do with LT’s in the sense that you want LT to be half decent as a fantasy owner. I do not believe Sproles can carry a full game’s worth of carries, but if they are in a time share, Sproles plays better and the change of pace seems to catch defenses off guard.
The Remains To Be Good From Weeks 3 & 4
Santana Moss (ADP 74.6): 2 rec, 74 yds, 1 TD
Solid performance by Moss with another long TD against the Bucs. A third impressive game will have made Santana consistent, until he becomes inconsistent the next game. He is an enigma, but when owners start him on the right weeks, Moss produces WR1 games. He just also has the WR4 games and owners should be weary, but enjoy the hot streak.
The Remains To Be Seen From Week 4
Brandon Marshall (ADP 54.2): 4 rec, 91 yds, 1 TD
Great YAC (yards after catch) by Marshall who turned a solid 20 yd gain into a near 50 yd gain with a TD. I am still not a huge believer in Orton’s arm though and similar to how other QB’s are impacting entire offenses in the league (i.e. JaMarcus’ powerful & inaccurate arm), Orton’s limits Marshall. With tougher defenses on the horizon, I expect the Broncos offense to struggle more and along with that, fewer opportunities for Marshall
Aaron Rodgers (ADP 27.4): 384 yds, 2 TD’s, 1 INT
Rodgers’ stat lines are still very impressive as Green Bay has a pass-happy attack that is emphasized even more when they are behind in games. The bigger issue is how many times Rodgers is getting hit and his ability to play 16 games. I would strongly advise owners who have Rodgers to get a good backup because I do not expect the offensive line to get too much better and subsequently expect Rodgers to be out of games at some point in the season.
Jason Witten (ADP 41.2): 4 rec, 31 yds
Terrell Owens was probably one of the best players for a guy like Witten, who catches all the underneath and intermediate routes on the field for Dallas. But without a guy who can stretch the field for Romo and the Cowboys, Witten has not shown TE1 status yet this year. He has the receptions which is to be expected, but yardage and TD’s are down in the first quarter of the season. The Cowboys have a negative vibe around them this year and with that, offense tends to take a dive.
McGahee still had a TD against New England, but the pendulum of touches went back to Ray Rice this week. McGahee needs to consistently score TD’s to be useful for Baltimore and at some point, the TD streak will stop. When that happens, expect McGahee’s role to diminish, but how much will be the more interesting factor. The Ravens seem to have gone with the hot hand and if Rice can seize control as an every-down RB, I would not be shocked if the Ravens stick with him even on the goal line
The Good Turning Into Great From Week 3
Steve Smith (ADP 136.8): 11 rec, 134 yds, 2 TDs
Through four weeks, Smith is at WR1 status. For a guy drafted so low, anyone who drafted him is giddy as he was targeted multiple times by Manning. He is not only the clear possession receiver for the Giants, but he is a redzone threat, which was unexpected at the beginning of the year. Use him confidently in lineups as a WR1/WR2 unless shown otherwise.
The Good From Week 4
Chad Ochocinco (ADP 39.3): 3 rec, 24 yds, 2 TD
Not many yards, but targets in the redzone are key in fantasy football and you cannot complain with 2 TD’s. The Bengals are looking better and Ochocinco is the clear #1 WR here with Coles struggling. Continue to expect similar production from one of the best celebrators in the NFL.
Mike Sims-Walker (ADP None): 7 rec, 91 yds, 2 TD
The Jaguars are suddenly an offensive machine and Sims-Walker has been a welcome surprise for a receiving core that has been weak since the McCardell/Smith era. Sims-Walker needs to put in one more performance for me to be a firm believer in WR2 status, but he has played very well and seems to have great chemistry with Garrard.
Chris Cooley (ADP 68.5): 5 rec, 65 yds, 1 TD
Cooley has been extremely consistent for the Redskins with 5+ receptions in 3 of 4 games and getting many targets from Campbell. This production would be hard to keep up, but for now, Cooley is producing TE1 numbers. I am somewhat leery of this consistency, but expect the Redskins to be behind in games and thus more passes, more opportunities for Cooley.
