Percy Harvin = Randy Moss lite? That is what everyone in the media seems to be telling me. Let me note as well that I am an extremely stubborn person in fantasy football leagues. I am usually convinced that rookies tend to struggle in the first year, except RB’s, and even picking rookie RB’s can be a crapshoot.
However, the 2008 year was a magical year for rookies at all positions. Matt Ryan & Joe Flacco at QB; Matt Forte, Chris Johnson & Steve Slaton at RB; DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, & Donnie Avery at WR; John Carlson & Dustin Keller at TE. All these players put up stats that were surprising from many aspects. While the RB’s were projected to be solid players, the threesome of Forte, Johnson & Slaton put up RB1/RB2 stats making them every week starters. For WR’s and TE’s, they likely got more attention because there was little expected of them. So when they produced some reputable stats, this was welcomed by all who were scouring the waiver wire by the first week. I am going to list the top 4 rookie players in rushing & receiving (3 WR’s & 1 TE) over the last three years. Notice some of the patterns as you look through the stats.
RUNNING BACKS
Chris Johnson: 1228 yds rushing, 260 yds receiving, 43 receptions, 10 TD’s
Steve Slaton: 1282 yds rushing, 377 yds receiving, 50 receptions, 10 TD’s
Matt Forte: 1328 yds rushing, 477 yds receiving, 63 receptions, 12 TD’s
Kevin Smith: 976 yds rushing, 286 yds receiving, 39 receptions, 8 TD’s
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Eddie Royal: 91 receptions, 980 yds, 5 TD’s
DeSean Jackson: 62 receptions, 912 yds, 2 TD’s
Donnie Avery: 53 receptions, 674 yds, 3 TD’s
John Carlson: 55 receptions, 627 yds, 5 TD’s
The stats for this class were very good, which again I think partially has to do with expectations. When looking at the 2007 class, there was an elite #1 RB in Adrian Peterson, but beyond AP & Marshawn Lynch, there was not much else at RB. In terms of receivers, while Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, and Greg Olsen are now emerging as first or second tier players at their position, in their rookie year, their stats were ordinary as seen below
RUNNING BACKS
Adrian Peterson: 1341 yds rushing, 268 yds receiving, 19 receptions, 13 TD’s
Marshawn Lynch: 1115 yds rushing, 184 yds receiving, 18 receptions, 7 TD’s
Selvin Young: 729 yds rushing, 231 yds receiving, 35 receptions, 1 TD
Kolby Smith: 407 yds rushing, 148 yds receiving, 22 receptions, 2 TD’s
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Dwayne Bowe: 70 receptions, 995 yards, 5 TD’s
Calvin Johnson: 48 receptions, 756 yds, 4 TD’s
Anthony Gonzalez: 37 receptions, 576 yds, 3 TD’s
Greg Olsen: 39 receptions, 391 yds, 2 TD’s
If we are talking about re-draft leagues, these receivers, besides Bowe who was arguably a WR2, were respectable at best and likely did not merit every-week play in fantasy lineups.
Now, let us look at the 2006 class. This collection of players shows again that RB’s tend to be the most productive from a position standpoint. Examples are shown below
RUNNING BACKS
Reggie Bush: 565 yds rushing, 742 yds receiving, 88 receptions, 8 TD’s
Maurice Jones-Drew: 941 yds rushing, 436 yds receiving, 46 receptions, 15 TD’s
Joseph Addai: 1081 yds rushing, 325 yds receiving, 40 receptions, 8 TD’s
Laurence Maroney: 745 yds rushing, 194 yds receiving, 22 receptions, 7 TD’s
Compared with the top WR’s or TE’s, the only one that stands out is Marques Colston as seen below.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Marques Colston: 70 receptions, 1038 yds, 8 TD’s
Santonio Holmes: 49 receptions, 824 yds, 2 TD’s
Greg Jennings: 45 receptions, 632 yds, 3 TD’s
Owen Daniels: 34 receptions, 352 yds, 5 TD’s
Based on the patterns seen, there are 2-3 RB’s & 1 WR that fit into everyday lineups. Arguably, there were 2 WR’s last year, but I would treat the 08 season as an exception.
Ultimately, what does this mean for the 2009 season? There are many factors that can be interpreted on why certain rookies do better than others, but I’ll make my suggestions on the 2 RB’s who will do well this year and the 1 WR that will fill the Colston/Bowe/Royal role this year
Chris “Beanie” Wells: There are a couple factors at play here. First off, Arizona’s offense is high-powered and still remains an offense influenced by Ken Whisenhunt, who comes from the Steelers regime of smashmouth football. Secondly, if Tim Hightower struggles, then I expect Wells to be thrust into this role fast. Hightower only averaged 2.8 yds a carry last year and showed struggles in every-down situations. Finally, Arizona plays in a fairly weak NFC West, which is always a helpful factor as rookie RB’s like Wells develop throughout the season
Donald Brown: Similar to Wells, Brown is someone who is in an offense that has shown that they can put up a lot of points. Joseph Addai struggled last year & I expect that Brown at the very least will share the workload with Addai as the season progresses. This would be similar to what Addai did in his rookie year with Dominic Rhodes as the starter. I strongly believe that when looking at rookie stats that they pick up steam when they have a solid nucleus around them. In Brown’s case, a dose of Peyton Manning should do the job in helping Brown achieve a RB2/RB3 season for fantasy owners.
Most of the top RB’s in the last 3 years have been on winning teams and I expect Arizona and Indianapolis to both do well this year. These are correlations illustrated well in this
Rotoworld article and also the reason I left out Knowshon Moreno. I do not expect Denver to be an above .500 team this year. Furthermore, Moreno is in a McDaniels/Belichick system. The McDaniels/Belichick system, as we have seen in New England, is not much different than the Shanahan system, which ultimately is a RB by committee. Based on what McDaniels has illustrated thus far in his personnel moves, I am not confident in much in Denver regardless of what is said about Moreno being the #1 RB.
For the WR role, this will go right back to the beginning of the article with
Percy Harvin. I will add with Harvin that I believe for him to be the only rookie achieving WR2 status similar to Colston, Bowe, & Royal, Harvin will need Sage Rosenfels in the lineup. I am buying the hype on Harvin and as long as Minnesota can produce the same type of running game that they have in the last few years, Harvin can be the deep threat in an offense that should get better this year.
The last three years have rewarded fantasy owners by taking rookie RB's and I expect similar results in the upcoming season. I did not realize until I looked at the stats that they have also been giving us one WR as well.
+pic.jpg)
