QB Keepers

I was ecstatic to see Rotoworld’s break-out discussion of the Vikings. They do seem to emphasize guys like Harvin and Shiancoe a bit much, but this article verifies to a certain extent what I was discussing with Favre. Frankly, I’m more worried about Sage Rosenfels (if he gets the job) and his Favre-esque features as shown by his 21 TD/22 INT ratio in the 10 games he started in Houston. This does lead to today’s topic which revolves around QB’s. More specifically, this is another situation that I am encountering in a keeper league where I am trying to discern where I should be selecting a QB, particularly a QB that I think could be elite this year.

In my keeper league, every team has 3 keepers from the past year. The league is heavily TD based (6 TD’s for all with QB’s getting 1 pt/50 yds, RB & WR’s 1 pt/10 yds). My QB picks in the first two years were great (Year 1: Brady, Year 2: Cutler). However, I waived Brady when he got injured because I felt Cutler was possibly the guy in Denver. We have now all seen how the Denver situation has worked out as well. So now, I have a team with Frank Gore, Deangelo Williams, and Steve Smith with the 8th pick in the draft. There are 3 teams without a QB at this point. This is where the drafting becomes tricky.

I’ll appoint the non-QB teams as Team A & Team B. Team A without a QB has the 3rd overall pick. Again, I have the 8th pick. And Team B has the 9th, 10th, & 11th pick in the draft (shown in chart below)

1.01 QB
1.02 QB
1.03 Team A (Non QB)
1.04 QB
1.05 QB
1.06 QB
1.07 QB
1.08 The Knuckles (My Team)
1.09 Team B (Non QB)
1.10 Team B (Non QB)
2.01 Team B (Non QB)


The QB’s left at this point go as follows in average ADP order: McNabb, Ryan, Cutler, Schaub, Palmer, Roethlisberger. I know which QB I’m focusing on and I’m going to indicate him here even though my league my read this article. It’s Schaub. The question in my head though is, “Can I wait until the 2nd round?” Or another way to ask the question is, “How good is Matt Schaub?”

I like everything in Houston at this point. They have a legitimate running game with Slaton, they have a top tier WR in Andre Johnson and another possession WR in Kevin Walter. Even Owen Daniels is a serviceable TE who usually goes in late rounds with decent production. But am I overhyping a player that I may use my 1st (or 4th) round pick on when he has not shown consistency to play through a full season and there are other QB’s out there debatably in his tier? I made the point in the first blog that for certain players, they may essentially be undraftable because their bad season is going to be extremely horrific. But how do you react in the opposite situation when you have a player that you feel has that bust-out potential and how much is sacrificed by taking him too early? I will be answering my own question on draft day and look back in retrospect in either dismay or satisfaction pending on Schaub’s performance.

The last part that complicates matters is that Team B has 3 picks in a row after my 1st round pick. Team B could pick 2 QB’s at this point, including Schaub, if I choose to defer my pick and hope for the best. At this point, I will designate Schaub as one of the biggest boom/bust candidates. Making these decisions correctly tend to alter the projection of your team significantly (i.e.; Carson Palmer vs. Drew Brees last year as both were rated similarly). Here’s hoping that I get at least some of these right in the wildness of the draft…