Hi my name is Nathan Lee and I'm a Fantasy Footaballholic. In this blog, I will re-analyze some questions asked on various fantasy sports sites and come up with unique questions that are not asked despite the saturation of information on the Internet. I will be writing Mondays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays during the season and will add more pending on my schedule.
The first question I am going to pose is a subject that surprisingly I haven't seen discussed. I figured every single aspect of fantasy football would be discussed by now, especially after reading Justin Forsett’s fantasy value, but this subject/question is one I cannot see. And that question is...
"Who is this year's Willis McGahee?"
There is always one RB that does not just disappoint in a fantasy football season, but is a complete bomb which severely hinders a owner for the year. Last year, McGahee's stats went as follows:
170 rushes, 671 yards, 7 TD's
24 receptions, 173 yards, 0 TD's
On average, McGahee was being drafted in the 3rd round in two out of three of my fantasy leagues & was kept as a keeper in another league. McGahee’s ADP was 30.4 in 2008. In the one league that I finished dead last in, I had McGahee drop to the 6th round and I just could not resist at that point. I thought I was getting an incredible steal here, but that turned out to be disastrous in many ways. Not only did McGahee have a lack of production, but he gave hope to me as he had solid games (Week 7 & 10 went for over 100 yds and 1 TD) and subsequent dud games (Week 11 & 12, mustered 24 yards on 16 carries combined).
The year before that, Larry Johnson played a similar role as he followed up a fabulous 2006 campaign (1789 yards, 17 TD’s) with an abysmal 2007 season (559 yards, 3 TD’s). McGahee & Johnson respectively are players I made a conscious effort to avoid in both years, but the McGahee situation in the league I finished last put me in a predicament. I asked the question, “Can a player go so low in a draft where I feel I have to pick them?”. I said yes & paid the price as McGahee not only showed glimpses in weeks that I could not predict, but gave me hope in the subsequent weeks that he was startable. I could say now that it’s arguable whether McGahee should have even gone in the top ten rounds based on his performance last year.
So who is this year’s Willis McGahee? The clearest answer is LaDainian Tomlinson. Many fantasy football players will see Tomlinson drop and subsequently think, “Well I have to take him now in the second round, he’s LT! He holds the TD record, he always rushes for 1000+ yards”. But I am telling you right now, avoid Tomlinson at all costs. I don’t know if there’s ever a point where you have to say you have to draft someone in the 3rd or 4th round for Tomlinson after I saw McGahee last year. And I must say that in the “Not For Long” league, Darren Sproles can easily supplant Tomlinson even with just a couple bad games. The same happened to McGahee with Rice & Le’ron McClain last year and I expect a similar trend to Tomlinson. There are few times when RB’s improve after steadily showing a downhill pattern in their stats & performance such as LT last year. Also by picking players like Tomlinson at a high position in these drafts, they tend to take up an additional roster spot with the hope that they can continue at such a high level. These players will show glimpses, but nothing consistent throughout the season which makes a fantasy owner’s decision even more difficult on a week-to-week basis. There’s always one bomb in the fantasy football field and the key is to avoid these at all costs. This year, it’s LT.
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