WW Overrated/Underrated/"Evenly Rated"

Similar to the last piece with musings, I am going to look at the ones I hit from the previous week and the ones where I looked like a dope.

RIGHT OVERRATED Selection From Week 1
Michael Clayton – 2 rec, 27 yds (ADP: None): In a game where Leftwich looked good in the passing game, Clayton looked mediocre. As mentioned last week, Clayton is wildly inconsistent and against a pummeling Giants D, I don’t expect anything better.

WRONG OVERRATED Selection From Week 1
Mike Bell – 86 yds rushing, 1 TD (ADP: None): The only reason that I may have been somewhat right was because Bell got injured. Pierre Thomas seems to still have a nagging knee injury, but when back, I expect Bell to shrink up considerably. Bell did better than expected against an Eagles D and would have been a great play if available against Buffalo this week

OVERRATED for Week 2

Byron Leftwich – 296 yds, 3 TDs, 2 INTs (ADP: None): I am surprised that people are that high on Leftwich even in leagues where you start 2 QBs. While he will be passing a lot, I am not convinced that he can keep up a pace that he has exhibited in the last two weeks. I expect Josh Freeman much sooner than people would expect simply to develop a QB in a year where the Bucs are clearly rebuilding.

Todd Heap – 1 rec, 9 yds, 1 TD (ADP: None): With no TD, this would be a typical inconsistent Todd Heap performance. The Baltimore offense may be booming, but I don’t expect too much more from Heap in the weeks to come. Unless your league requires 2 TE’s, there will likely be better choices on the waiver wire.

RIGHT UNDERRATED Selection From Week 1
Brent Celek – 8 rec, 104 yds (ADP: 151.3): Celek was still targeted heavily even with Kolb at the helm. These are fantastic stats for a guy drafted towards the end of drafts and speaks to the depth at the TE position when you can get players of this caliber producing at this rate.

WRONG UNDERRATED Selection From Week 1
Mewelde Moore -13 yds rushing, 3 rec, 15 yds receiving (ADP: None): Instead of Moore playing more of a role, there is talk that Rashard Mendenhall being more involved in the offense. I expected more playing time for Moore with both Parker & Mendenhall struggling, but for now, Moore is only likely to be in any lineups if there is an injury in the Steelers backfield.

UNDERRATED For Week 2

Mario Manningham – 10 rec, 150 yds, 1 TD (ADP: None): For a guy who was getting no buzz in the preseason, Manningham has jumped to the top of the WR core in a very good Giants passing game. These are WR1 stats that Manningham produced this week and should be interesting how he progresses throughout the year. Very possible that Manningham could be a WR2 by the end of the year.

Justin Forsett – 35 yds rushing, 6 rec, 57 yds receiving (ADP: None): Forsett is a deep sleeper, but produced well with both Julius Jones and Edgerrin James struggling. The receptions will be key for Forsett, especially in a PPR, to see how he is utilized in the Seattle offense.

“Evenly rated”

Laurent Robinson – 6 rec, 54 yds, 1 TD (ADP: None): Just to note, no overrated or underrated for this section. Robinson is a tricky WR to read here because I believe Donnie Avery will come back as the #1 WR. Just as owners are down on Avery, owners are high on Robinson and I’m not totally convinced even with 2 good stat lines. In the next coming weeks, we should find out who the real #1 WR is in St. Louis and Robinson is making his case week by week.

Pierre Garcon – 1 rec, 48 yds, 1 TD (ADP: None): Garcon did very little except one big play against the Dolphins on MNF. Garcon was targeted a decent amount and I expect continual improvement from Garcon as he establishes more rapport with Manning. Nothing to get crazy about, but Garcon can fill in as the 3^rd option in the passing game between Wayne & Clark.

LeSean McCoy – 18 yds rushing, 4 rec, 37 yds receiving (ADP: 88.1): McCoy’s value has been very up-and-down from sites that I read ranging from waiving him to holding onto him for dear life. Westbrook is going through his annual routine of not practicing and McCoy in the Eagles offense could be potent. There were some first signs of life from McCoy in week 2 and this should continue as long as Westbrook has lingering injuries. In previous years, the Eagles did not have a RB like McCoy that they could rely on as much, but with Westbrook’s age, this is a luxury that I expect the Eagles to use more rigorously.

Musings from Week 2

As the season progresses, I will review a couple picks for each category I have made from the previous week, both right and wrong. After that, I will continue to have updates on players who are faltering or improving in the season. Week 2’s are usually the weeks with big shock factor as too much credence is put on Week 1’s performance. There should be more surprises until we have played a full month. By that time, owners should be able to figure out which performances are more consistent and which are one time deals.

The Bad Continuing To Be Bad From Week 1

Brandon Marshall (ADP 54.3) & Eddie Royal (ADP 53.0):
Marshall – 3 rec, 34 yds & Royal – 3 rec, 20 yds
These stats are not encouraging at all for an offense that was making these WR’s elite last year. All of a sudden, both of these WR’s are looking mediocre with a more concerning line with Royal. Marshall has built-in excuses with all his off-the-field issues. Royal does not and for him to only have 5 receptions in 2 games is concerning. 2 weeks can be an aberration, but owners start to get worried after 3 or more weeks. If this continues, owners who drafted either of these players around their ADP are probably regretting the decision.

The Bad Who Are Getting Better From Week 1

Steve Smith (ADP 21.4): 8 rec, 131 yds
Delhomme looked like a competent QB against a decent Falcons D and Smith played his role from last year. Smith’s main issues are getting TD’s, but owners will not complain as much if there are continued performances such as the one in week 2. A tricky player to evaluate and will be interesting as we go through the weeks for a true gauge on one of the few smurfs left at the WR position.

The Bad For Week 2

Donnie Avery (ADP 87.2): 1 rec, 4 yds, 1 fumble
Avery’s stat line in week 1 was not bad going for 6 rec, 46 yds. However, a fumble in each week is a killer more so for lack of confidence in feeding him the ball over the long term. I do not think Avery is that far behind Laurent Robinson and I would suggest in deeper leagues for owners to continue to stay with him. The fumbles cannot continue for improvement to be expected and I believe this will stop with time.

Roy Williams (ADP 45.2): 1 rec, 18 yds
I mentioned earlier about consistently poor performances from players. For Roy Williams, this has been his entire stint for the Cowboys. I have never seen a player that continues to regress in what should be his prime. There is no chemistry with him and Romo and I do not expect this to improve any time soon. Considering this was supposedly a beat up Giants secondary that the Cowboys faced in Week 2, Williams did nothing to merit a mid 4th round pick from the beginning of the year.

Lance Moore (ADP 69.1): 0 rec
While the Saints offense continues to score points at will this year, Moore has been non-existent in the offense. Moore seems to just have the wrong timing with small injuries hampering him and players like Shockey, Henderson, and Meachem more involved in the passing game. Moore was picked high with some caution and now there should be more concern from owners who may have the wrong player in the right offense.




The Remains To Be Seen Again From Weeks 1 & 2

Julius Jones (ADP 92.0): 11 yds rushing, 3 rec, -2 yds rec, 1 TD This stat line look horrendous, but that depends on who you ask. PPR players are thankful for the 3 receptions and I expect that Jones will still be a good value pick for his ADP. Justin Forsett is closing in on a timeshare with performances such as Week 2’s and that will dictate how much time Jones will get on the field in future weeks.

The Remains To Be Good From Weeks 1 & 2

Joe Flacco (ADP 141.4): 190 yds passing, 2 TD’s, 1 INT
Matt Ryan may get more credit, but Flacco has looked great in the last couple weeks. Of course in typical NFL fashion, while the offense of the Ravens is finally above average, the defense is not as good without Rex Ryan and his crazy blitzes. Anyone who got Flacco got a steal at this spot as he is a legitimate QB2 in all leagues and with performances from the past weeks, he could possibly be a QB1 going forward.

The Remains To Be Seen

Terrell Owens (ADP 34.5): 3 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD
The only difference between this week’s statline and last week’s is a TD. Owens still dropped a couple deep passes and against the Saints, Dolphins, and Browns, T.O can still show if he is everything he touts himself to be in the next month. Owens needs TD’s and the rest of the receptions and yards come soon after. But no TD’s should leave owners concerned and regretting a 3rd round pick as defenses will not get easier in the coming weeks.

Carson Palmer (ADP 85.9): 185 yds passing, 4 TD’s (3 passing, 1 rushing), 2 INT’s
Palmer has looked slightly above average in the two games thus far. 2 interceptions in each game, but the TD’s came much easier against Green Bay and I expect more of that going forward with Palmer. In the NFL, many aspects move exponentially and with Palmer, he improves as the running game improves. Benson and the O-line have looked great and if this continues, Palmer can serve as a good starter or great backup on most fantasy teams.

Zach Miller (ADP 145.1): 0 rec
In the Raiders offense, Miller will unfortunately have some of these games. The passing game is anemic with Russell there, but Miller is definitely a top target for him. I would treat the Chiefs game as an aberration, but also the Chargers game as well. Miller should be more productive moving forward, but owners might need to look at back-ups if Miller has another poor performance next week against the Broncos.

The Maybe Not As Good As I Thought From Week 1

Randy Moss (ADP 8.2): 4 rec, 24 yds
Darrelle Revis may have been the reason Moss’ stat line was this low in week 2. But again no TD and as mentioned with Palmer, Moss will go as Brady goes. And if there is no TD again in week 3, then from a consistency standpoint, owners will get worried and I think there is some merit to it. I expect Brady to find his groove similar to Manning last year midway through the season. But until then, statlines such as week 2’s may continue for Moss until we get into the middle of the year.

The Good Turning Into Great From Week 1

Drew Brees (ADP 11.2): 311 yds passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Against a stiff Eagles defense that made Delhomme look like he was in high school, Brees went through them at ease and solidified his spot as the #1 QB in fantasy. When you look at Brees’ stat line from year to year, everything gets better and this is encouraging from a dynasty standpoint as well. I do not expect this to stop, but an interesting week 4 matchup against the Jets D will prove to be another big test for a QB that looks like he cannot be stopped.

The Good From Week 2

Marques Colston (ADP 24.6): 8 rec, 98 yds, 2 TDs
Colston has looked fantastic the first two weeks in the New Orleans offense. While Brees seems to be spreading the ball a lot, Colston is still a focal point of the offense and should continue to be as the season progresses. Health will be a concern, but if Colston can get a full season in, he may move to WR1 status this year.

Kellen Winslow (ADP 79.0): 7 rec, 90 yds, 1 TD
Winslow has caught a TD pass in both games and seems to be a heavy target for Byron Leftwich. If Tampa continues to be behind in games, which is likely, that means more passing and more targets for Winslow. To see him this involved in the offense is a promising sign for a guy who has been quite streaky throughout his NFL career.

Philip Rivers (ADP 35.2): 436 yds, 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s
Rivers benefits from LT not being the focal point of the offense any more. The passing game has been emphasized and been productive in the last two games. Rivers has great chemistry with Jackson and Gates and this should likely continue throughout the year. Owners should be encouraged on taking Rivers compared to guys like Romo and Rodgers, who have struggled this year.