Musings from Week 2

As the season progresses, I will review a couple picks for each category I have made from the previous week, both right and wrong. After that, I will continue to have updates on players who are faltering or improving in the season. Week 2’s are usually the weeks with big shock factor as too much credence is put on Week 1’s performance. There should be more surprises until we have played a full month. By that time, owners should be able to figure out which performances are more consistent and which are one time deals.

The Bad Continuing To Be Bad From Week 1

Brandon Marshall (ADP 54.3) & Eddie Royal (ADP 53.0):
Marshall – 3 rec, 34 yds & Royal – 3 rec, 20 yds
These stats are not encouraging at all for an offense that was making these WR’s elite last year. All of a sudden, both of these WR’s are looking mediocre with a more concerning line with Royal. Marshall has built-in excuses with all his off-the-field issues. Royal does not and for him to only have 5 receptions in 2 games is concerning. 2 weeks can be an aberration, but owners start to get worried after 3 or more weeks. If this continues, owners who drafted either of these players around their ADP are probably regretting the decision.

The Bad Who Are Getting Better From Week 1

Steve Smith (ADP 21.4): 8 rec, 131 yds
Delhomme looked like a competent QB against a decent Falcons D and Smith played his role from last year. Smith’s main issues are getting TD’s, but owners will not complain as much if there are continued performances such as the one in week 2. A tricky player to evaluate and will be interesting as we go through the weeks for a true gauge on one of the few smurfs left at the WR position.

The Bad For Week 2

Donnie Avery (ADP 87.2): 1 rec, 4 yds, 1 fumble
Avery’s stat line in week 1 was not bad going for 6 rec, 46 yds. However, a fumble in each week is a killer more so for lack of confidence in feeding him the ball over the long term. I do not think Avery is that far behind Laurent Robinson and I would suggest in deeper leagues for owners to continue to stay with him. The fumbles cannot continue for improvement to be expected and I believe this will stop with time.

Roy Williams (ADP 45.2): 1 rec, 18 yds
I mentioned earlier about consistently poor performances from players. For Roy Williams, this has been his entire stint for the Cowboys. I have never seen a player that continues to regress in what should be his prime. There is no chemistry with him and Romo and I do not expect this to improve any time soon. Considering this was supposedly a beat up Giants secondary that the Cowboys faced in Week 2, Williams did nothing to merit a mid 4th round pick from the beginning of the year.

Lance Moore (ADP 69.1): 0 rec
While the Saints offense continues to score points at will this year, Moore has been non-existent in the offense. Moore seems to just have the wrong timing with small injuries hampering him and players like Shockey, Henderson, and Meachem more involved in the passing game. Moore was picked high with some caution and now there should be more concern from owners who may have the wrong player in the right offense.




The Remains To Be Seen Again From Weeks 1 & 2

Julius Jones (ADP 92.0): 11 yds rushing, 3 rec, -2 yds rec, 1 TD This stat line look horrendous, but that depends on who you ask. PPR players are thankful for the 3 receptions and I expect that Jones will still be a good value pick for his ADP. Justin Forsett is closing in on a timeshare with performances such as Week 2’s and that will dictate how much time Jones will get on the field in future weeks.

The Remains To Be Good From Weeks 1 & 2

Joe Flacco (ADP 141.4): 190 yds passing, 2 TD’s, 1 INT
Matt Ryan may get more credit, but Flacco has looked great in the last couple weeks. Of course in typical NFL fashion, while the offense of the Ravens is finally above average, the defense is not as good without Rex Ryan and his crazy blitzes. Anyone who got Flacco got a steal at this spot as he is a legitimate QB2 in all leagues and with performances from the past weeks, he could possibly be a QB1 going forward.

The Remains To Be Seen

Terrell Owens (ADP 34.5): 3 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD
The only difference between this week’s statline and last week’s is a TD. Owens still dropped a couple deep passes and against the Saints, Dolphins, and Browns, T.O can still show if he is everything he touts himself to be in the next month. Owens needs TD’s and the rest of the receptions and yards come soon after. But no TD’s should leave owners concerned and regretting a 3rd round pick as defenses will not get easier in the coming weeks.

Carson Palmer (ADP 85.9): 185 yds passing, 4 TD’s (3 passing, 1 rushing), 2 INT’s
Palmer has looked slightly above average in the two games thus far. 2 interceptions in each game, but the TD’s came much easier against Green Bay and I expect more of that going forward with Palmer. In the NFL, many aspects move exponentially and with Palmer, he improves as the running game improves. Benson and the O-line have looked great and if this continues, Palmer can serve as a good starter or great backup on most fantasy teams.

Zach Miller (ADP 145.1): 0 rec
In the Raiders offense, Miller will unfortunately have some of these games. The passing game is anemic with Russell there, but Miller is definitely a top target for him. I would treat the Chiefs game as an aberration, but also the Chargers game as well. Miller should be more productive moving forward, but owners might need to look at back-ups if Miller has another poor performance next week against the Broncos.

The Maybe Not As Good As I Thought From Week 1

Randy Moss (ADP 8.2): 4 rec, 24 yds
Darrelle Revis may have been the reason Moss’ stat line was this low in week 2. But again no TD and as mentioned with Palmer, Moss will go as Brady goes. And if there is no TD again in week 3, then from a consistency standpoint, owners will get worried and I think there is some merit to it. I expect Brady to find his groove similar to Manning last year midway through the season. But until then, statlines such as week 2’s may continue for Moss until we get into the middle of the year.

The Good Turning Into Great From Week 1

Drew Brees (ADP 11.2): 311 yds passing, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Against a stiff Eagles defense that made Delhomme look like he was in high school, Brees went through them at ease and solidified his spot as the #1 QB in fantasy. When you look at Brees’ stat line from year to year, everything gets better and this is encouraging from a dynasty standpoint as well. I do not expect this to stop, but an interesting week 4 matchup against the Jets D will prove to be another big test for a QB that looks like he cannot be stopped.

The Good From Week 2

Marques Colston (ADP 24.6): 8 rec, 98 yds, 2 TDs
Colston has looked fantastic the first two weeks in the New Orleans offense. While Brees seems to be spreading the ball a lot, Colston is still a focal point of the offense and should continue to be as the season progresses. Health will be a concern, but if Colston can get a full season in, he may move to WR1 status this year.

Kellen Winslow (ADP 79.0): 7 rec, 90 yds, 1 TD
Winslow has caught a TD pass in both games and seems to be a heavy target for Byron Leftwich. If Tampa continues to be behind in games, which is likely, that means more passing and more targets for Winslow. To see him this involved in the offense is a promising sign for a guy who has been quite streaky throughout his NFL career.

Philip Rivers (ADP 35.2): 436 yds, 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s
Rivers benefits from LT not being the focal point of the offense any more. The passing game has been emphasized and been productive in the last two games. Rivers has great chemistry with Jackson and Gates and this should likely continue throughout the year. Owners should be encouraged on taking Rivers compared to guys like Romo and Rodgers, who have struggled this year.

Musings from Week 1

A long time since I last posted. I said that I would try to make 2-3 posts a week before each week. I should have something up on the Tuesdays and Thursdays. From my end, I am going to write about performances and more so how they relate to the ADP of players. It has only been one week, but certain players definitely standout with their scoring line and some make you wonder whether they merited the round they were selected.

The Bad

Brandon Marshall (ADP 54.3) & Eddie Royal (ADP 53.0):
Marshall – 4 rec, 27 yds & Royal – 2 rec, 18 yds
I discuss both because the Denver offense looked awful. I expect Marshall to struggle even more because of Orton’s inability to throw the deep ball. In PPR leagues, I expect more from Royal and see this week as more of an outlier. The offense could not get much worse and should start moving in the right direction in the weeks ahead.

Steve Slaton (ADP 13.7): 17 yds rushing; 3 rec, 35 yds receiving
I find the Texans as a confusing team to watch. Some weeks, they look phenomenal and other weeks, they look like one of the worst teams in the league. Slaton only ran for 17 yards this week and with the Titans up next, Slaton could have more trouble getting anything going in the run game

Steve Smith (ADP 21.4): 3 rec, 21 yds
Delhomme would be an easy target here, but I would be more concerned with Smith and a lower level, DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart. Delhomme & Smith definitely have a connection for long-ball strikes and without that ongoing, Smith drops to a WR2

Anthony Gonzalez (ADP 46.9): 0 rec
Gonzalez is injured, but what is more concerning is this 2-6 week stretch. If this injury turns out to be a 4, 5 or 6-week injury, this is extremely concerning. Even when back, Gonzalez will need to regain trust & rapport with Manning, which is not a guarantee. Gonzalez’s situation will be one to watch in one of the oddest injuries I have seen in some time in NFL

Greg Olsen (ADP 62.7): 1 rec, 8 yds
I am intrigued to see if week 1 was an aberration for a guy who was hyped up for a huge season with Cutler this year. Olsen has been hyped as a upcoming TE1 and last night did nothing to inspire any confidence. There was very little to show of it against Green Bay and with Pittsburgh coming up, life does not get much easier

The Remains To Be Seen

Thomas Jones (ADP 58.7): 107 yds rushing, 2 TD’s
What will define Jones and Leon Washington is if the Jets do not have to come from behind in games. This is still the same team with a strong offensive line and a defense that arguably has become better with the additions of Bart Scott & Jim Leonhard. If the Jets can do well, the running game can do well and Jones could be better than people anticipated

Julius Jones (ADP 92.0): 117 yds rushing, 1 TD; 2 rec, 19 yds receiving

This stat line is more likely an aberration considering Jones ran against the Rams. But like his brother Thomas, Julius may be better than expected and for a guy selected in the late 8th to early 9th round, there could be some hidden value as a matchup starter in most leagues

Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 100.8): 363 yds passing, 1 TD, 2 INT
Big Ben had a very good and surprising stat total against the Titans last Thursday. Similar to the Jets, the evolution and way the Steelers win games will be the signal of what to expect of Ben in the future. Surely, 360 yards is not happening often, but will we see more 300 yd games out of Ben? From what was seen Thursday, I would not be shocked because the running game was ineffective for the Steelers.

Jeremy Shockey (ADP 117.8): 4 rec, 31 yds, 2 TD’s
Hard to say with Shockey who has never seem meet the hype fantasy owners have given him. But maybe with lower expectations, Shockey rises to have the season we have expected of him all along. Week 1 was a good start and if he can be a constant red-zone target for Brees, Shockey could be a solid start most weeks for fantasy players

Joe Flacco (ADP 141.4): 307 yds passing, 3 TD’s, 1 INT
Can you imagine if the Ravens start scoring points at that pace? Flacco looked great on Sunday albeit against a KC Defense that still does not stop very much. Next week should serve a stiffer test against the Chargers but two weeks in a row would be impressive for a guy who was asked to manage the game last year.

The Good

Reggie Wayne (ADP 17.2): 10 rec, 162 yds, 1 TD
If this is what Wayne will look like for the rest of the season with constant targets, then he is in for a huge year. The part that I will be curious about is if Wayne can continually get open without Gonzalez, but Wayne looked like Fitzgerald in the NFC divisional game where Fitzgerald got a lot of attention from the defense, but was still catching balls.

Drew Brees (ADP 11.2): 358 yds passing, 6 TDs, 1 INT
Brees looked like he had never even left the field from last year in week 1 against the Lions. With a stiffer Eagles defense coming up, seeing how Brees will fair will give fantasy owners a better assessment of how Brees will do this season. If Brees can still put up monster numbers against the Eagles and possibly without Pierre Thomas, he may be in the untradeable category for lots of owners

Adrian Peterson (ADP 1.3): 180 yds rushing, 3 TDs; 1 rec, 18 yds receiving
AP’s last run for a TD was phenomenal against the Browns. What probably assures owners even more is the 3 TD’s for Peterson and the determination of the Vikings to feed him the ball in the red zone. Players like Harvin and Favre make life easier for Peterson as week 1 has made him look like the RB that justifies the #1 pick in most drafts.

Randy Moss (ADP 8.2): 12 rec, 141 yds
Moss may not have a TD, but had consistent numbers with Brady back in the lineup. For Moss owners, the TD’s will come as Moss’ progress is correlated with Brady’s. Brady will continue to get better, look for the long ball more, and at some point, the Patriots will get back to their 07 form which means big points for Moss

Tony Romo (ADP 49.4): 353 yds, 3 TD’s
Romo put up a stat line in a game where I could have seen Dallas struggle. And at the beginning when watching the morning games, it looked like a game Dallas would barely win and put up mediocre numbers. Then all of a sudden, three long bombs to Williams, Crayton, and Austin. Romo is still maintaining is Mr. September/October by playing well early. Time will tell later in the season if he can produce like this late in the season.

I will write one more article in the week and keep up this pattern for the season. This will go over the waiver wire, but more correlated with that, why these waiver wire players are coveted. Most time it seems to be injury, but if fantasy owners can look in the distance and see poor play (i.e.: Tomlinson playing poorly, Sproles getting more time), these are things to look for in the weeks against when scouring the wires.