Slow PPR Live Draft Blog, Entry 3

Offer was upgraded to this

Smackdown will give up:
Round 2, Pick 12 Draft Pick
Round 4, Pick 1 Draft Pick
Round 10, Pick 1 Draft Pick

The Knuckles will give up:
Wayne, Reggie IND WR
Round 4, Pick 3 Draft Pick
Round 10, Pick 3 Draft Pick

I rejected this as well although I was very close to pulling the trigger under the condition that Boldin was not picked next...

Slow PPR Live Draft Blog, Entry 2

Was just offered this:

Smackdown will give up:
Round 2, Pick 12 Draft Pick
Round 8, Pick 1 Draft Pick
Round 10, Pick 1 Draft Pick

The Knuckles will give up:
Wayne, Reggie IND WR
Round 8, Pick 3 Draft Pick
Round 10, Pick 3 Draft Pick

I declined and asked for a better offer. This is probably another perk of a slower draft to trade picks, but I think at this point, it would take a lot for Wayne to be pried off my hands.

Slow PPR Live Draft Blog, Entry 1

Currently doing a slow PPR draft (12 hrs max per pick, although no one has waited that long yet) and going to put up scenarios coming up in my draft. I said in the July 31st blog that I decided to choose whatever RB fell to me & in this scenario, it was Forte. As I said before, good enough as I would be happy with any of those guys.

This league has a lot of creativity in the sense that it is a 3RR draft. I had never done a draft like this before as I have the 3rd pick overall, but then in the second and third rounds, I have the 10th pick in each round respectively (ends up being the 22nd and 34th pick). To show the draft order as it may be easier, it looks like this (I am The Knuckles)

1.01	Smackdown	Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
1.02	SUPERDAVE	Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
1.03	The Knuckles	Forte, Matt CHI RB
1.04	Green Bowl Packers
1.05	Philippe27
1.06	Pain Train
1.07	River-Rats
1.08	Feisty Ferrets
1.09	Jaguars
1.10	The Grim Reaper
1.11	White Mules 1
1.12	We Need to Win 1
2.01	We Need to Win 1
2.02	White Mules 1
2.03	The Grim Reaper
2.04	Jaguars
2.05	Feisty Ferrets
2.06	River-Rats
2.07	Pain Train
2.08	Philippe27
2.09	Green Bowl Packers
2.10	The Knuckles
2.11	SUPERDAVE
2.12	Smackdown
3.01	We Need to Win 1
3.02	White Mules 1
3.03	The Grim Reaper
3.04	Jaguars
3.05	Feisty Ferrets
3.06	River-Rats
3.07	Pain Train
3.08	Philippe27
3.09	Green Bowl Packers
3.10	The Knuckles
3.11	SUPERDAVE
3.12	Smackdown
4.01	Smackdown
4.02	SUPERDAVE
4.03	The Knuckles
4.04	Green Bowl Packers
4.05	Philippe27
4.06	Pain Train
4.07	River-Rats
4.08	Feisty Ferrets
4.09	Jaguars
4.10	The Grim Reaper
4.11	White Mules 1
4.12	We Need to Win 1
5.01	We Need to Win 1
5.02	White Mules 1
5.03	The Grim Reaper
5.04	Jaguars
5.05	Feisty Ferrets
5.06	River-Rats
5.07	Pain Train
5.08	Philippe27
5.09	Green Bowl Packers
5.10	The Knuckles

And when I got back from work, I'm welcome with a choice on who to select for the 22nd overall selection. Here is what the draft has looked like thus far

1.01	Smackdown	Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
1.02	SUPERDAVE	Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
1.03	The Knuckles	Forte, Matt CHI RB
1.04	Green Bowl Packers	Gore, Frank SFO RB
1.05	Philippe27	Jackson, Steven STL RB
1.06	Pain Train	Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB
1.07	River-Rats	Slaton, Steve HOU RB
1.08	Feisty Ferrets	Johnson, Andre HOU WR
1.09	Jaguars	Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
1.10	The Grim Reaper	Johnson, Calvin DET WR
1.11	White Mules 1	Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC RB
1.12	We Need to Win 1	Johnson, Chris TEN RB
2.01	We Need to Win 1	Moss, Randy NEP WR
2.02	White Mules 1	Turner, Michael ATL RB
2.03	The Grim Reaper	Jennings, Greg GBP WR
2.04	Jaguars	Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
2.05	Feisty Ferrets	Smith, Steve CAR WR
2.06	River-Rats	White, Roddy ATL WR
2.07	Pain Train	Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB
2.08	Philippe27	Barber, Marion DAL RB
2.09	Green Bowl Packers	Colston, Marques NOS WR
2.10	The Knuckles	?????????

So at this point, I was left with these assortment of players at current positions

QB:
Brees
Brady
Manning

RB:
Portis
Brown
Kevin Smith
Thomas
Grant
Bush

WR:
Wayne
Boldin
Bowe
Welker

I made this decision fairly easily and chose Wayne. I was tempted to take Brees off the board at this point, but I thought Wayne, Boldin, & Bowe would not drop back to me at the 34th pick. Maybe if I had the 27th pick, I can pluck a QB, but it's a league where QB TD's are only worth 4 points vs. RB/WR TD's being worth 6 points & the difference is negligible. There are certain picks that feel easier and certain picks where you agonize a bit because you would like to choose 2 or 3 guys at that point. This was one of the easier picks as I feel that I can wait for a QB even at a 4th round spot when there is more value to select one. I'll continue to put these slo-motion live blogs up there for this draft. I actually have never done a draft similar to this and it's actually quite a bit of fun.

Favre Back Again with Lower Value?

I wrote before about how Favre was of great value on July 27th if he made the decision to come back to the Vikings. Now on August 19th, I am saying otherwise. There have been many articles written about how Favre will impact the team from several angles. I would say Favre’s delay, regardless of whether he was intending to skip training camp or had genuine indecisiveness, is a massive hindrance on his chance to succeed with the Vikings.

Much of the problem stems from Favre not being in training camp. If Favre had joined the Vikings in late July, he would have gone through similar pains and been held to the same standard as everyone else. This point has been written about at length as seen on major sites, but I have a different perspective on how this is troubling from a fantasy perspective.

The biggest issue here is the expectation that Favre has set on himself by delaying this decision. The message being sent is that he is the godsend and the only hope that the Vikings have to make the Super Bowl. These expectations may have been present in July, but they are further amplified because the Vikings are essentially saying, “We will do everything in our power to alter our rules simply so you can play on our team. We need you and we cannot win a championship without you”. The minute this expectation is starting to fade, which will happen at some point, I expect the Vikings season to go sour.

By sending the message the Vikings have, I believe they are setting the idea in Favre’s head that he needs to win games for them, rather than manage them. A Favre that manages games such as the 2007 Packers version would be highly successful in this system. I would expect a similar season to the 28 TD’s and 4,115 yards shown in 2007 in a situation with Adrian Peterson and a Top-5 Offensive Line. Favre’s success and stats come much more naturally in this context. However, with the current message being sent to Favre, I expect much more of his gun-slinging approach. For all the critics who say Favre is an egomaniac, this situation in Minnesota will be the truest of tests. There is no situation in the NFL that I can think of that could be better for Favre and all he has to do is manage a game. Places such as New England, Philadelphia, and Indianapolis depend far more on their QB compared to Minnesota. But this delay overemphasizes Favre’s importance in a situation where he was already important enough. I fully expect Favre to believe that the team cannot win games without him and that will ultimately be his detriment both from a team and fantasy perspective. At the same time, I do not think Favre would want it any other way…

Injured Players from the 2008 Season

I am going to go by division and discuss players who are coming back from an injury and the impact that they could have on their respective team. Many of these players tend to get forgotten and they are important players to target in terms of finding bargains in the later rounds.

NFC East – Felix Jones: This much I remember from Jones’ brief play last year.
A) He apparently looked like he was 40
B) He could run like hell, but Dallas did not really seem to want to use him on much besides kickoffs
At the end of the Cowboys year, they were using Tashard Choice. Imagining Jones in that offense would have been scary if he could have kept up any sort of pace that he was illustrating early in the year. Only 30 carries, but an average of 8.9 yds/carry. This stat is impressive and many owners are taking the leap to draft him earlier as shown by his ADP (6.11). I would agree with this position and given what Dallas had seen last year with Barber breaking down at the end, I would expect more of Jones & a new combo nickname (hopefully something a little more original than Thunder & Lightning)

NFC North – James Jones: No, this is not a Jones specific list. Jones had a strong rookie campaign followed by a subpar sophomore season (20 rec, 274 yds, 1 TD). When you look at Green Bay’s offense, they are rising and with Don Driver bound for a decline at some point, Jones could be the next guy to step in. He is not on the ADP radar when I searched for him, but it’s worth keeping him in mind, especially given Aaron Rodgers’ performance last year.

NFC South – Kellen Winslow: Much was expected of Winslow after he posted 1106 yds & 5 TD’s in the 2007 season. But like most of the other Browns, Winslow was dismal last year playing in only 10 games and amounting only 428 yds. His ADP is 7.05, which is quite high considering the unknown QB situation in Tampa. Winslow is going over other proven TE’s such as Chris Cooley (7.11) and Owen Daniels (8.03) and I would much prefer those two TE’s at that juncture of the draft.

NFC West – Matt Hasselbeck: Hasselbeck had his best year in 2007 with 28 TD’s and nearly 4000 yds. But last year, Hasselbeck was injured and probably was in no immediate rush to come back to a team who were so depleted they went circa 2004 by bringing back Koren Robinson. I was just waiting for Darrell Jackson to line up on the other side and remind fans how to consistently drop balls. Hasselbeck will not get back to the year in 07, but I expect 20-24 TD’s with 3000+ yds again. Hasselbeck’s ADP is 10.01, which is just about right for an owner who drafts a player like Matt Schaub.

AFC East – Greg Camarillo: Where’s Tom Brady? I figured there is probably enough talk about him. Let’s go with Camarillo, who got injured at a point where he finished with 55 rec, 613 yds, and 2 TD’s. Had he finished the season, Camarillo would have been on pace for 80+ receptions, which is great for PPR owners who need to fill WR spots. Davone Bess filled in essentially as a clone for Camarillo as Bess gathered 30 out of his 54 receptions after Camarillo got injured. Finding out who is Pennington’s go-to possession receiver will be of great benefit for fantasy owners. At this point, this is hard to predict although Rotoworld seems convinced Bess is the PPR man (link). Currently, Camarillo is not on the ADP charts.

AFC North – Carson Palmer: Prior to the 2008 campaign, Palmer had thrown for over 4000 yds in the past two years. He was essentially the 3rd QB in line behind Manning & Brady. Now, his ADP is 8.01, which is quite low considering his receiving core should be better his year. Another player to pair up with QB’s like Schaub or Donovan McNabb as Palmer can get back to stats in the mid-20 TD territory and 3200+ yds.

AFC South – Mike Walker: This pick here is a big stretch as Torry Holt is now in Jacksonville. However, Walker is worth keeping in mind similar to James Jones as Garrard seems to have solid chemistry with Walker. Walker’s stats were ordinary, but someone has to catch balls there and I do not believe Holt is the clear cut answer to the problem. Look for the younger receiver in these situations as there is a lot more potential in Walker than in Holt. Walker is not on the ADP charts.

AFC West – Darren McFadden: McFadden did play 13 games, but was constantly on the injury report and only ended up starting 5 games. I would expect far more than the 113 carries McFadden saw last year and if Jeff Garcia is somehow able to get the #1 job there, I would take McFadden higher than his ADP (4.08), probably somewhere in the late 3rd round-early 4th round. There is less talk this year of Justin Fargas playing such a large role in a committee system and with that, McFadden could put up RB2 numbers by being the focal point in the offense.

The Rookie Selection

Percy Harvin = Randy Moss lite? That is what everyone in the media seems to be telling me. Let me note as well that I am an extremely stubborn person in fantasy football leagues. I am usually convinced that rookies tend to struggle in the first year, except RB’s, and even picking rookie RB’s can be a crapshoot.

However, the 2008 year was a magical year for rookies at all positions. Matt Ryan & Joe Flacco at QB; Matt Forte, Chris Johnson & Steve Slaton at RB; DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, & Donnie Avery at WR; John Carlson & Dustin Keller at TE. All these players put up stats that were surprising from many aspects. While the RB’s were projected to be solid players, the threesome of Forte, Johnson & Slaton put up RB1/RB2 stats making them every week starters. For WR’s and TE’s, they likely got more attention because there was little expected of them. So when they produced some reputable stats, this was welcomed by all who were scouring the waiver wire by the first week. I am going to list the top 4 rookie players in rushing & receiving (3 WR’s & 1 TE) over the last three years. Notice some of the patterns as you look through the stats.

RUNNING BACKS
Chris Johnson: 1228 yds rushing, 260 yds receiving, 43 receptions, 10 TD’s
Steve Slaton: 1282 yds rushing, 377 yds receiving, 50 receptions, 10 TD’s
Matt Forte: 1328 yds rushing, 477 yds receiving, 63 receptions, 12 TD’s
Kevin Smith: 976 yds rushing, 286 yds receiving, 39 receptions, 8 TD’s

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Eddie Royal: 91 receptions, 980 yds, 5 TD’s
DeSean Jackson: 62 receptions, 912 yds, 2 TD’s
Donnie Avery: 53 receptions, 674 yds, 3 TD’s
John Carlson: 55 receptions, 627 yds, 5 TD’s

The stats for this class were very good, which again I think partially has to do with expectations. When looking at the 2007 class, there was an elite #1 RB in Adrian Peterson, but beyond AP & Marshawn Lynch, there was not much else at RB. In terms of receivers, while Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, and Greg Olsen are now emerging as first or second tier players at their position, in their rookie year, their stats were ordinary as seen below

RUNNING BACKS
Adrian Peterson: 1341 yds rushing, 268 yds receiving, 19 receptions, 13 TD’s
Marshawn Lynch: 1115 yds rushing, 184 yds receiving, 18 receptions, 7 TD’s
Selvin Young: 729 yds rushing, 231 yds receiving, 35 receptions, 1 TD
Kolby Smith: 407 yds rushing, 148 yds receiving, 22 receptions, 2 TD’s

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Dwayne Bowe: 70 receptions, 995 yards, 5 TD’s
Calvin Johnson: 48 receptions, 756 yds, 4 TD’s
Anthony Gonzalez: 37 receptions, 576 yds, 3 TD’s
Greg Olsen: 39 receptions, 391 yds, 2 TD’s

If we are talking about re-draft leagues, these receivers, besides Bowe who was arguably a WR2, were respectable at best and likely did not merit every-week play in fantasy lineups.

Now, let us look at the 2006 class. This collection of players shows again that RB’s tend to be the most productive from a position standpoint. Examples are shown below

RUNNING BACKS
Reggie Bush: 565 yds rushing, 742 yds receiving, 88 receptions, 8 TD’s
Maurice Jones-Drew: 941 yds rushing, 436 yds receiving, 46 receptions, 15 TD’s
Joseph Addai: 1081 yds rushing, 325 yds receiving, 40 receptions, 8 TD’s
Laurence Maroney: 745 yds rushing, 194 yds receiving, 22 receptions, 7 TD’s

Compared with the top WR’s or TE’s, the only one that stands out is Marques Colston as seen below.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Marques Colston: 70 receptions, 1038 yds, 8 TD’s
Santonio Holmes: 49 receptions, 824 yds, 2 TD’s
Greg Jennings: 45 receptions, 632 yds, 3 TD’s
Owen Daniels: 34 receptions, 352 yds, 5 TD’s

Based on the patterns seen, there are 2-3 RB’s & 1 WR that fit into everyday lineups. Arguably, there were 2 WR’s last year, but I would treat the 08 season as an exception.

Ultimately, what does this mean for the 2009 season? There are many factors that can be interpreted on why certain rookies do better than others, but I’ll make my suggestions on the 2 RB’s who will do well this year and the 1 WR that will fill the Colston/Bowe/Royal role this year


Chris “Beanie” Wells: There are a couple factors at play here. First off, Arizona’s offense is high-powered and still remains an offense influenced by Ken Whisenhunt, who comes from the Steelers regime of smashmouth football. Secondly, if Tim Hightower struggles, then I expect Wells to be thrust into this role fast. Hightower only averaged 2.8 yds a carry last year and showed struggles in every-down situations. Finally, Arizona plays in a fairly weak NFC West, which is always a helpful factor as rookie RB’s like Wells develop throughout the season

Donald Brown: Similar to Wells, Brown is someone who is in an offense that has shown that they can put up a lot of points. Joseph Addai struggled last year & I expect that Brown at the very least will share the workload with Addai as the season progresses. This would be similar to what Addai did in his rookie year with Dominic Rhodes as the starter. I strongly believe that when looking at rookie stats that they pick up steam when they have a solid nucleus around them. In Brown’s case, a dose of Peyton Manning should do the job in helping Brown achieve a RB2/RB3 season for fantasy owners.

Most of the top RB’s in the last 3 years have been on winning teams and I expect Arizona and Indianapolis to both do well this year. These are correlations illustrated well in this Rotoworld article and also the reason I left out Knowshon Moreno. I do not expect Denver to be an above .500 team this year. Furthermore, Moreno is in a McDaniels/Belichick system. The McDaniels/Belichick system, as we have seen in New England, is not much different than the Shanahan system, which ultimately is a RB by committee. Based on what McDaniels has illustrated thus far in his personnel moves, I am not confident in much in Denver regardless of what is said about Moreno being the #1 RB.

For the WR role, this will go right back to the beginning of the article with Percy Harvin. I will add with Harvin that I believe for him to be the only rookie achieving WR2 status similar to Colston, Bowe, & Royal, Harvin will need Sage Rosenfels in the lineup. I am buying the hype on Harvin and as long as Minnesota can produce the same type of running game that they have in the last few years, Harvin can be the deep threat in an offense that should get better this year.

The last three years have rewarded fantasy owners by taking rookie RB's and I expect similar results in the upcoming season. I did not realize until I looked at the stats that they have also been giving us one WR as well.

QB Keepers

I was ecstatic to see Rotoworld’s break-out discussion of the Vikings. They do seem to emphasize guys like Harvin and Shiancoe a bit much, but this article verifies to a certain extent what I was discussing with Favre. Frankly, I’m more worried about Sage Rosenfels (if he gets the job) and his Favre-esque features as shown by his 21 TD/22 INT ratio in the 10 games he started in Houston. This does lead to today’s topic which revolves around QB’s. More specifically, this is another situation that I am encountering in a keeper league where I am trying to discern where I should be selecting a QB, particularly a QB that I think could be elite this year.

In my keeper league, every team has 3 keepers from the past year. The league is heavily TD based (6 TD’s for all with QB’s getting 1 pt/50 yds, RB & WR’s 1 pt/10 yds). My QB picks in the first two years were great (Year 1: Brady, Year 2: Cutler). However, I waived Brady when he got injured because I felt Cutler was possibly the guy in Denver. We have now all seen how the Denver situation has worked out as well. So now, I have a team with Frank Gore, Deangelo Williams, and Steve Smith with the 8th pick in the draft. There are 3 teams without a QB at this point. This is where the drafting becomes tricky.

I’ll appoint the non-QB teams as Team A & Team B. Team A without a QB has the 3rd overall pick. Again, I have the 8th pick. And Team B has the 9th, 10th, & 11th pick in the draft (shown in chart below)

1.01 QB
1.02 QB
1.03 Team A (Non QB)
1.04 QB
1.05 QB
1.06 QB
1.07 QB
1.08 The Knuckles (My Team)
1.09 Team B (Non QB)
1.10 Team B (Non QB)
2.01 Team B (Non QB)


The QB’s left at this point go as follows in average ADP order: McNabb, Ryan, Cutler, Schaub, Palmer, Roethlisberger. I know which QB I’m focusing on and I’m going to indicate him here even though my league my read this article. It’s Schaub. The question in my head though is, “Can I wait until the 2nd round?” Or another way to ask the question is, “How good is Matt Schaub?”

I like everything in Houston at this point. They have a legitimate running game with Slaton, they have a top tier WR in Andre Johnson and another possession WR in Kevin Walter. Even Owen Daniels is a serviceable TE who usually goes in late rounds with decent production. But am I overhyping a player that I may use my 1st (or 4th) round pick on when he has not shown consistency to play through a full season and there are other QB’s out there debatably in his tier? I made the point in the first blog that for certain players, they may essentially be undraftable because their bad season is going to be extremely horrific. But how do you react in the opposite situation when you have a player that you feel has that bust-out potential and how much is sacrificed by taking him too early? I will be answering my own question on draft day and look back in retrospect in either dismay or satisfaction pending on Schaub’s performance.

The last part that complicates matters is that Team B has 3 picks in a row after my 1st round pick. Team B could pick 2 QB’s at this point, including Schaub, if I choose to defer my pick and hope for the best. At this point, I will designate Schaub as one of the biggest boom/bust candidates. Making these decisions correctly tend to alter the projection of your team significantly (i.e.; Carson Palmer vs. Drew Brees last year as both were rated similarly). Here’s hoping that I get at least some of these right in the wildness of the draft…